Hypothesized relationship
A pressing question that arises from last week’s brief introduction to the forest transition hypothesis is whether it offers useful guidance as regards future trends in Guyana’s extractive forest sector. In a nutshell that discussion of forest transition is focused on what may be termed, a hypothesized long-term historical relationship between any given country’s net forest loss/deforestation and the performance of its real per capita GDP over similar long periods of time.
According to the hypothesis, in the early phases of “modern economic growth” (that is, after a country moves beyond subsistence or near-subsistence levels of functioning); net forest loss/deforestation increases. Such increases in deforestation can also be generalized as reflecting an overall decline in a country’s environmental quality (increased pollution and waste, loss of biodiversity, and so on). The hypothesis suggests that, beyond some level of per capita income/wealth, this deforestation reverses itself. The point of inflection, where deforestation stops and reforestation begins, cannot be predicted a priori. When it does arrive though, it typically coincides with a turnaround in society’s (and government’s) approach towards the forests and broader environment.
The separate treatment in the hypothesis of the period when subsistence or near-subsistence modes of production prevail essentially underscores the limitations of two key components of such modes of production. These are their production capabilities or
