If we want to say something about the future state of an event, we have to account for the initial conditions. Given that we live in a complex world, the outcomes often depend on the initial conditions. It is possible that one initial condition could produce multiple outcomes, making the task of prediction fraught with errors and pitfalls. In spite of the peril, I will argue that we should account for the state of the government sector at this point as we ponder the economic outcomes of oil revenues.
This is important because the oil revenues will directly flow to government, which will be responsible for distributing the monies to competing interests inside and perhaps outside Guyana. Therefore, the direction in which the government sector is heading in recent years will present helpful insights into how well the funds will be spent in the future. It is also important for pondering future political contestation between the PPPC and PNCR.
