With Latin America and the Caribbean facing the COVID-19 pandemic “from a weaker position than the rest of the world” there is, as yet, no telling what the pandemic’s economic impact on the region is likely to be at this stage, according to a recent assessment undertaken by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
The assessment undertaken in April and titled “Latin America and the Caribbean and the COVID-19 pandemic: Economic and social effects,” states that prior to the onset of the pandemic it had projected that GDP would grow by a maximum of 1.3% this year. That forecast, however, has now been sharply revised downwards, with GDP now predicted to contract between 3% and 4% “or even more.” The final economic impact, it says, “will depend on the actions taken at the national, regional and global levels.”
ECLAC identifies various “external transmission channels” through which, it says, COVID-19 is impacting the region, namely; the decline in the economic activity of the region’s main trading partners; the drop in commodity prices; the interruption of global value chains; lower demand for tourism services; greater risk aversion; and worsening global financial conditions.
