Foreign exchange shortage in a booming economy: a paradox of plenty?

This essay is an extension of the previous one on September 10: ‘Balances due from abroad and the foreign exchange “shortage”’, which argues that there has been a precipitous decline in the availability of the liquid stock of foreign exchange available to the non-bank private sector, although the aggregate level of foreign exchange is on the rise. The liquid stock represents the amount of commercial banks’ net foreign assets that is available to clear cheques of Guyanese doing business overseas. In other words, the country is earning an unprecedented level of foreign exchange, yet the amount available to lubricate the engine of commerce is decreasing.

Guyana witnessed its largest current account surplus in 2022, amounting to US$3.825 billion given the giant expansion of oil export. The last current account surplus of US$27.6 million occurred in 2016. All the other years since 2013 have been deficits. The current account balance accounts for the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, as well as incomes of foreigners who invest in Guyana (less incomes Guyanese earn overseas), and inflows of remittances and other transfers.