Caribbean governments are now looking for long-term relationships outside the region

Some years ago, I heard the late Michael Manley, the former Prime Minister of Jamaica, deliver a speech on the Caribbean’s changing place in the world.

The Cold War had ended and the Berlin Wall had fallen. It was a truly determining moment.  His remarks matched the occasion. Speaking as only he could, he spelt out the implications for the Caribbean and for poorer nations of living in a world in which the US was the only global power. He saw then that the region was likely to become of less interest to the outside world. His remarks were measured, thought provoking and many years ahead of their time in recognising that a US led consensus would emerge that would seek to remake all in its own image.

As he predicted, by the early 1990s the Caribbean had largely become strategically irrelevant and less able to appeal for support on the basis that its relative underdevelopment or smallness made it vulnerable. So much so that by the latter part of that decade it was easy for Europe to unravel the economic preferences that it had put in place during the Cold War and substitute largely unfocused and poorly co-ordinated policies that sought to encourage regionalism and competition based on US economic liberalism.

As a consequence much of the Caribbean entered this century with only narcotics trafficking, terrorism related activity, criminality and the presence of strategic hubs of interest, helping to keep the region on the US and EU’s world map.  Even then the suggestion at higher policy levels was that these largely security driven concerns could be contained through vigilance and co-operation.

This may change if the Caribbean once again comes to be seen to be of strategic significance.
Multiple and overlapping interests in the Caribbean have begun to emerge as a wider range of states seek a global role. The region and nations within it have become of interest to those that have not had any traditional role, including China, Brazil, Venezuela, Iran and India that are seeking in very different ways to become active in the Caribbean and Latin America.

Recent developments such as the purchase by the China National Petroleum Corp of the 5m barrel strategically placed storage facility on St Eustatius; Iran’s interest in undertaking a minerals mapping exercise in Guyana; the Caribbean’s economic dependency on Venezuela’s PetroCaribe arrangement; and China’s interest in advancing military ties with Guyana, all pass beyond the relationship implied by decisions to invest in tourism, provide support for capital projects such as road-building or cricket stadiums or the provision of technical support.

This is not to argue there is anything wrong in these developments or to suggest that the scenarios associated with the Cold War are about to be repeated. Rather it is to note that if the Caribbean again comes to be seen as having strategic significance the outcome for the region may be less than predictable, as it coincides with Caribbean nations exploring new relationships in ways that raise questions about the viability of their practical commitment to Caricom let alone Cariforum.

Suriname and Guyana for reasons associated with economic development and security are looking at deepening their relations with Brazil and others in Latin America; Belize is becoming ever more closely integrated into Central America; the nations of the Western Caribbean are beginning to explore whether there may be serious longer tem value in deepening between them levels of co-operation and economic activity; Trinidad sees its future at the centre of a number of concentric rings that include Latin America and the US; the Eastern Caribbean and perhaps Barbados are seeking closer integration; the Dominican Republic  would welcome a better economic relationship with the anglophone Caribbean but despite being  thwarted at every turn has the critical mass to select its hemispheric and international friends in other ways; Cuba is seeking to turn its hugely inefficient system into something more dynamic that partially involves deeper integration with Venezuela and others in Latin America; and Haiti, against the wishes of most of its people, seems to be becoming a nation colonised and dependent on the international community and NGOs.  Which is to say nothing about the tensions that exist between all of the overseas territories and their respective metropoles.

In the real world changes to strategic national interest of this nature may be inevitable among states at different levels of development. They may be required before the component parts of the region become strong enough economically to integrate or confederate in a manner that creates a Caribbean place and identity in the world.
In a few days time leading figures mainly from the larger economies of the Western Caribbean will gather in the Cayman Islands to participate in the first even conference to discuss how the economic relationship between Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Haiti and Puerto Rico might be strengthened.

The event, billed as the first ever Northern Caribbean conference, takes place on December 17 and is being hosted by the Jamaica National Building Society.  Among the speakers will be Jamaica’s Prime Minister, Bruce Golding; P J Patterson, the Special Representative of Caricom on Haiti and former Jamaican Prime Minister; the Premier of the Cayman Islands, McKeeva Bush; the former Prime Minister of Canada, Joe Clark; and a range of persons academia and senior businessmen. It will be accompanied by a gathering of tourism ministers from the region who will hold a concurrent session focused on tourism-related matters.

Although the organisers suggest that the event is not meant to signal a desire to break away from Caricom they do recognise that the absence of any external strategic interest in the Caribbean, the Northern Caribbean should reassess how it co-operates in a new environment.

What all this suggests is that at a very high level Caribbean governments are now looking for long-term relationships with new partners beyond the region at just the moment that those outside are looking at the Caribbean.

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