Introduction A significant number of readers have asked me to clarify/expand/repeat more simply the way in which I arrived at the “back of the envelope” or “ballpark estimates” of annual Guyana Government Take, which I offered in last week’s column.
Introduction Today’s column measures the impact of applying my values for production, price, and Government Take (indicated in Part 1 of Guyana’s Petroleum Road Map), to Rystad Energy’s analytics.
Introduction Last week’s column offered a brief overview of Part 2 of Guyana’s Petroleum Road Map.
Introduction This week’s column starts my presentation of the Second Part of Guyana’s Petroleum Road Map.
Introduction Last Sunday’s column concluded my discussion of Guidepost 6. It also provided the indicative unit total cost range for a barrel of oil equivalent (boe) which I shall apply to the estimation of Guyana’s likely petroleum revenues, after cost, for the remainder of the Road Map, going forward.
Introduction Last week’s column wrapped-up my discussion of break-even prices, both from a business (commercial) perspective and a fiscal and their relation to the unit total cost of Guyana’s crude oil exports.
Introduction In last week’s column, I had introduced the concept of the break-even price.
Introduction Today’s column links my ongoing assessment of Guidepost 6 in Guyana’s Petroleum Road Map (that is, the average (unit) total costs for its crude oil export) to my previous presentations in this series on Guyana’s projected indicative price range per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) for its expected petroleum exports.
Last Update: 558.05 Movement: 3.73% Current Update: 537.22 YTD Movement: 4.34% The Lucas Stock Index (LSI) declined 3.73% during the fourth period of trading in May 2019.
Introduction Under Guidepost 6 of Guyana’s Petroleum Road Map, in its dimension for “getting petroleum revenues” I have offered, thus far, three sets of unit cost metrics, which were completed in 2018.
Introduction For the purposes of Guidepost 6 as listed in my presentation of Guyana’s Petroleum Road Map for its dimension of “assessing expected petroleum revenues”, I have already considered Hess Corporation’s cost metrics.
Introduction Today’s column evaluates the University of Trinidad & Tobago’s (U of T&T) modelling of the Liza Field Development.
Introduction In last week’s column, I had introduced Hess Corporation’s oil assets portfolio as presented by its Chief Executive Officer (CEO) to the “Barclays Energy — Power Conference,” held in September, 2018.
Introduction For the fourth week in succession, I shall continue my evaluation of the cost-price-profit profile for Guyana’s expected petroleum sector.
Introduction Today’s column continues my presentation on Guidepost 6. As observed earlier, this Guidepost is crucial for my estimating Guyana’s anticipated petroleum revenues.
Introduction In this week’s column, I begin consideration of Guidepost 6, as listed in my Guyana Petroleum Sector Road Map, for the dimension of “getting petroleum revenues.” This is the last Guidepost for that dimension.
Introduction This week’s column considers Guidepost 5 in Guyana’s Road Map for its petroleum sector in the dimension: “getting petroleum resources.” Because the Government of Guyana (GoG) is building its petroleum sector on the foundation of Petroleum Agreements with International Oil Contractors (IOCs), their capability for exploiting deepwater/ultra-deepwater offshore plays (especially in the testing areas of capex, skills and technology) is of paramount importance.
Introduction Today’s column summarily considers the two remaining existential threats to Guyana’s coming petroleum sector, which I have identified for the Road Map; namely: 1) a cataclysmic environmental event occasioned by petroleum extraction, and 2) the geo-strategic spillover from domestic political strife/conflict.
Introduction Today’s column addresses the first listed, and perhaps the most pressing of the three existential threats to the materialisation of Guyana’s petroleum sector and its projected Government revenues.
Introduction Empirical observations, research and analysis, along with widely recorded historical experiences reveal that, beyond doubt, Guyana’s coming time of oil and gas production and their export will be fraught with severe risks.
Introduction Thus far, I have considered two of the six Guideposts in my depiction of a Road Map for the Government of Guyana (GoG) “getting its petroleum revenues” dimension.
Introduction Last week I addressed two of the four lines of justification, which I advance in support of my bullish prediction of 13 to 15 billion barrels for Guyana’s oil reserves.
Introduction Today’s column presents my justification for the “bullish estimate of 13 to 15 billion barrels of high quality oil as Guyana’s reserves potential.” Based on this estimated potential, I have gone further to predict Guyana’s daily rate of production (DROP) at full ramp-up (or operating at maximum/peak output) is likely to be as high as 1.5 to 2.5 million barrels of high quality crude oil per day.
Introduction Last week’s column indicated that, based on three published estimates of Guyana Government Take, the Strategic Road Map is premised on the country receiving the average of these estimates – 55 percent.
Introduction Last week’s column offered a summary outline of my Strategic Road Map for “getting and spending” Guyana’s anticipated petroleum revenues.
Introduction Today’s column commences my first systematic delineation of a Strategic Road Map for getting and spending Guyana’s expected Government Take from the petroleum sector.
Introduction Today’s column concludes my discussion of fiscal stabilization clauses (FSCs) in Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs).
Introduction As promised, today’s column addresses the final topic in the now long running series (started September 2016) on Guyana’s coming petroleum sector, namely, its fiscal stabilization clause.
Introduction: Pillars Today’s discussion concludes my evaluation of the tenth and final topic on the list of “top-10 development challenges”, which Guyana will face, as it starts to receive its petroleum revenues next year.
Introduction and Definition Today’s column develops further the discussion of the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code.
Introduction Today’s column continues the discussion of the tenth (and final) item on my list of “top-10 development challenges”, which as I have indicated, Guyana will face when spending Government Take from its coming petroleum sector.
Introduction In last week’s column, I had indicated that there were two proposals, which I wished to offer on the tenth topic on my list of “top-10 development challenges.” That topic is “Integrating PSA Revenues into the National Budget.” These proposals are: First, a call for a major framework policy indicative plan early on in the process.
Introduction Today’s column starts consideration of the final topic (number 10) on my list of the top 10 development challenges, which I anticipate that spending Government’s Take from its coming petroleum sector, scheduled to be on-stream in early 2020, will have to confront in the coming years.
Introduction Today’s column concludes the discussion on the challenges facing Guyana in managing public expectations when spending its Government Take from the coming petroleum sector.
Introduction Last week’s column dealt with a few of the more theoretical aspects of the role that “public expectations” play in general economic growth theory and the modelling of natural resources policy management.
Introduction A number of readers have indicated to me I should have placed much more emphasis on the great extent to which the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) fiscal rule for natural resources revenue management,no longer finds favour, even among its most ardent initial supporters.
Introduction This week’s column addresses the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) fiscal rule as applied to Natural Resources Funds (NRFs).
Introduction Today’s column concludes my overall assessment and evaluation of Guyana’s Green Paper on its proposed Natural Resources Fund (NRF).
Introduction Today’s column continues to advance my overall assessment/evaluation of Guyana’s Green Paper, which proposes to establish a Natural Resources Fund (NRF) next year.
Introduction Having previously dealt with 1) aspects of the organizational and legal framework of Guyana’s intended Natural Resources Fund (NRF) (October 7, 2018) and 2) the fiscal rules governing its operations, today’s column turns to its overall assessment and evaluation.
Introduction Today’s column is numbered 16 in the sequence devoted to evaluating the “top-10 development challenges” that I predict spending Guyana’s Government Take from the coming petroleum sector has to navigate.
Introduction Today’s column starts my evaluation of the Green Paper on Guyana’s Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), laid by the Government of Guyana (GoG) in the National Assembly on August 8th, 2018.
SWFs &Global Capital Circuits Today’s column revisits my earlier discussion (January 8 to February 5, 2017) of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs).
Introduction Today’s column considers the challenge of navigating external pressures on Guyana to pursue a spending path for its expected Government’s Take, which conforms with what economists term the “permanent income hypothesis (PIH) budget rules”.
Introduction Today’s column starts with a wrap-up of the discussion on intergenerational equity.
Wrap-up: Implementation Lags As promised last week, today’s column first indicates the main lessons to be learnt from other developing countries’ experiences in dealing with implementation lags when preparing for the coming on-stream of a relatively massive extractive petroleum sector such as Guyana’s.
Introduction: “Oil for Cash” This week’s column addresses the development challenge posed by implementation lags.
Introduction This week, I conclude my discussion on the requirements for avoiding the perils of enclave-type development in Guyana’s economic structures.
Introduction Today’s column wraps-up my consideration of absorption capacity. This is the fourth on the list of top-ten development challenges, which spending Guyana’s expected significant Take (petroleum revenues) has to navigate in coming years in order to achieve sustained development.
Introduction Today’s column continues the discussion on absorption capacity. This is on my list of top-ten development challenges, which spending of Guyana’s expected significant Government Take from first oil and first gas will have to contend with, starting 2020.