This is a very unusual election season in so far as we still do not know who the main presidential candidates will be – the AFC excepted. But where the two ancient fossils of our political bedrock are concerned, there is still considerable uncertainty. The popular view is that the delay in the PPP camp – which after all would need time to introduce a ‘new’ candidate to its constituency – is either designed to see if against all the odds there is any possibility of a third term, or else to engineer a delay in the holding of elections. The latter could be an end in itself, allowing more time for the incumbent and his projects, or if not, at least give more latitude to set up the third term arrangements. Either way, the longer the governing party procrastinates about naming its candidate, the more it will fuel suspicions about its true intentions.
Then there is the PNC, mired in accusations about the transparency of its internal election processes. Mr Corbin has repeatedly stated that he does not want to be the party’s presidential candidate, although like Mr Jagdeo’s denials about seeking a third term, there are those who believe there is the whiff of ‘protesting too much’ about them. If, for the sake of argument, Mr Corbin were to become the PNC presidential candidate, it would simply rekindle the third term rumours, since he could hardly do a deal with President Jagdeo after the PNC had chosen a different presidential candidate whom he had publicly accepted – unless perhaps that candidate was his close associate.
As things stand, what the PNC Leader has made clear is that he does not intend to loosen his grip on the party leadership post, a stance over which justifiable reservations have been expressed. It is after all difficult to see how an arrangement with someone else as presidential candidate would work in practice. Mr Corbin would have his grip on the party machinery and would consequently have effective control of the campaign. Furthermore, he would still be in charge of the party if the PNC candidate lost. He would be gambling, of course, that the turn-out of his constituents would be large enough to allow him to retain the position of Leader of the Opposition, which goes to the leader of the party holding the second largest bloc of seats in the House. However, some have suggested that given the poor showing of PNC supporters in the 2006 election and the general feeling that he doesn’t command the kind of loyalty which his two predecessors enjoyed, this is by no means a foregone conclusion.
In any case, the PNC’s travails in relation to internal electoral transparency have simply served to widen the existing cracks in the party structure, and if unease about fairness cannot be assuaged, there would be long-term implications for the future of the organization, which should give members some cause for concern. Even in the case of the PPP, Freedom House is no longer the institution it was in the days when the Jagans kept a firm grip on proceedings to counter centrifugal tendencies. It has, of course, lost its ideology (its party constitution notwithstanding), although there are still some who adhere to Marxist-Leninist precepts, even if only nominally. But the inherently corrupting influence of power and the perks that go with it have undermined the ideological commitment and asceticism of many party stalwarts, and brought to the fore the acquisitiveness that they previously eschewed – at least publicly. Without any ‘higher’ principle to unite them, and in the absence of charistmatic leadership, there will be factionalism and in-fighting.
All of this does not mean to say that the PPP is about to go into demise any time soon; that is clearly not the case. However, it will begin to find that its stranglehold on its constituency will gradually diminish somewhat, although how fast and to what extent remains to be seen. As said above, the PNC’s future is more murky, and will be affected by a number of factors.
In the meantime there is at best a kind of phoney campaign under way, since neither of the two major parties has settled on who they will be campaigning for. In our system, the presidential candidate takes precedence over party policies, so as of now, those who will go to the voting booths have absolutely no idea how any of the parties intend (if successful) to confront our myriad problems, how they see the avenues for development, or what their posture on foreign affairs is.
While the AFC has decided on leadership issues, it cannot operate easily in a larger political vacuum. The government of course, is dealing with the context in which the campaign will eventually be conducted by ensuring that at least its constituency is satisfied. Amerindians in particular are being plied with the customary largesse, and on the coast, roads and bridges and whatever else are being fixed with an energy not seen in a long time. And inevitably, critics and perceived opponents from all quarters – although not, interestingly, the PNC – are being targeted by members of the administration in the usual blundering and gauche way. Even the Norwegians and the World Bank have been the recipients of the President’s indelicate language, although in the case of the World Bank, they are no strangers to this since Dr Ashni Singh had already lambasted them rather boorishly at an earlier stage. As for the PNC, it is so turned in on itself at the moment, that no one knows what’s its campaign will be like – if it ever gets the length of mounting one.
Before any kind of serious campaign can crank into gear, however, the PPP above all others has to speak. General Secretary Donald Ramotar told this newspaper some time ago that it was expected the party would name its presidential candidate before the end of the year. As can be seen from the report in our edition today, however, he now says it is likely that this will happen early in the new year. As said above, if it does not happen then, there will be a recrudescence of third-term rumours, more especially if Mr Corbin himself became the presidential candidate of the PNCR, or even, perhaps, if a close associate of his did.
Perhaps we should all be grateful that there will be no announcement before Christmas. While officially at least, this is not the season for harbouring malice, Guyana’s poisoned politics have a way of addling whole reservoirs of good will no matter what the time of year. Maybe now the politicians will allow the electorate to toddle along to a fairly congenial Christmas unassailed by polemics, and even, at a stretch, to enjoy a moderately cordial New Year without the intrusion of political insults.
