Poll shows India’s Modi holding strong lead before voting begins

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Indian opposition leader Narendra Modi appeared on course to become the next prime minister on Friday, with an opinion poll showing his Hindu nationalist party maintaining a strong lead ahead of a general election that begins next week.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has benefited from a wave of public anger over corruption scandals and a slowing economy under the ruling Congress Party, which may be facing one of its weakest-ever showings at the polls.

The BJP is expected to win 35 per cent of votes, a poll published by CNN-IBN and Lokniti at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) showed, 1 percent higher than a similar poll in January.

Congress is likely to claim 25 per cent of the vote, down from 27 per cent in the January poll, according to the last major survey before the election.

Voting in the world’s most populous democracy, where about 815 million people are expected to cast their votes, is phased over several weeks, ending on May 12. Results are due to be announced on May 16.

The polls have repeatedly suggested the BJP will emerge as the largest single party in the 543-seat lower house of parliament, but it is unlikely to win an outright majority and is seen forming a coalition government.

The BJP has promised to kick-start the economy, bring in factories, and educate the densely populated and still-poor heartland states of India.

The survey suggested the BJP and its allies would win 38 per cent of votes, giving them between 234 and 246 seats in the assembly. To form a government they would need a minimum of 272 seats forcing them to stitch up the remainder post the elections by forming alliances with other regional parties.

Congress and its allies are likely to get 28 per cent of votes, translating into 111 to 123 seats.