Dear Editor,
Barack Obama’s chances of becoming the next American President have improved significantly according to new opinion polls released over the last week. All the polls (almost a dozen) have Obama in a lead with some of them showing Obama leading Republican John McCain outside the margin of error of the poll.
Some polls have Obama ahead by as much as 9%. Two weeks ago when McCain was in the lead, I predicted that Obama will rise again, especially over the tanking economy. And he has.
There has been a shift in opinion in favour of Obama primarily over the economic crisis. Voters feel Obama will be better able to handle the economy than McCain who has shown that the economy is not his strong point.
Obama is not only leading nationally in popular support but polls also show him leading in several swing states which will determine who wins the presidency.
A week ago, McCain was leading in several swing states. Now, Obama is leading in virtually all of these battleground states. But the election is still a month away and anything can happen by then. I think McCain will rise again to tie Obama if the economic crisis is removed from the front pages of the news.
To win the presidency, a candidate must win a minimum 270 electoral votes. Every state is accorded EVs equal to its total congressional representation.
When a candidate wins a state, he gets that state’s EVs except one state which distributes its EVs proportionally based on votes received. The EVs are added cumulatively to get to the magic number of 270. Right now, based on the latest polls, Obama has a huge lead in EVs but is well short of the 270 because of the closeness of the contests in about ten states.
Poll numbers have been changing frequently over the last three months with one candidate grabbing the lead and switching hands. This election is expected to continue to be close with Obama having the edge right now.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
