HAVANA, (Reuters) – Former Cuban President Fidel Castro turns 84 yesterday, back in the limelight with a barrage of public appearances and nuclear war prophecies that raise questions about his influence on the socialist-ruled island.
But opinions are divided about whether his flurry of appearances since July 7, breaking four years of seclusion after a 2006 illness, will help or hinder prospects for change in one of the world’s last one-party communist states.
For the last six weeks, Cubans have gaped and foreign diplomats and analysts scratched their heads as the historic leader of the revolution emerged from a long period in the shadows to preach dire warnings of a nuclear apocalypse to local economists, diplomats, intellectuals and lawmakers.
Castro in 2008 formally handed over the Cuban presidency to his younger brother, Raul Castro, who is 79, but he retains his post as first secretary of the powerful Cuban Communist Party.
Before the latest appearances, intestinal surgery in 2006 and illness reduced his sightings to glimpses in photos and videos meeting guests at home, and to a stream of written essays, mainly on world affairs, published by state media.
Images of a relatively healthy and lucid Castro dressed in his trademark military olive green flashed across world TV screens on Saturday when he read a short live speech before the National Assembly, diplomatic corps and foreign journalists.
Castro called on U.S. President Barack Obama to avert a nuclear war by not enforcing U.N. sanctions aimed at controlling Iran’s nuclear activities through inspection of Iranian cargo ships. He asserts Tehran would respond to such an inspection attempt by sinking the U.S. fleet, triggering a conflict he earnestly urges world leaders to avoid.
These headline-grabbing utterances have stolen the spotlight from his more low-key brother Raul, causing many to ask who is calling the shots in Cuba’s secretive leadership.
“There has been much speculation as to what Fidel Castro is up to. Some speculate that he and his brother Raul have divided tasks and duties: Raul will handle domestic affairs, Fidel foreign policy. But that seems most unlikely,” said Wayne Smith, a former U.S. diplomat who opened the U.S. Interests Section in Havana during the Carter administration.
One communist party cadre, who asked not to be named, said Fidel Castro was strengthening his brother’s government at a difficult moment both in domestic and foreign policy.
JUST ADVISORY ROLE?
“Fidel’s presence has two objectives: to back Raul’s efforts to modernize the economy by showing he is still very much around and therefore approves, and to counter the negative international media coverage we received over human rights this year by shifting attention to the United States’ two soft spots, war and the environment,” the official said.
Raul Castro’s government suffered foreign condemnation earlier this year following the hunger strike death in jail of a dissident prisoner. In a deal last month with the Roman Catholic Church, it agreed to release 52 political prisoners.
Most observers agree Castro is in no condition to govern as he did for nearly half a century.
In an interview on Sunday with visiting Venezuelan journalists, he himself suggested that his role was largely advisory or consultative.
“My role is to say what is happening so that others can decide what to do. You have to understand that the comrades (in government) are not people I can lead by the hand, what I want is for them to think things over,” Castro said.
Castro’s birthday has traditionally been a low key affair, though no one is taking bets these days that he won’t appear cutting a cake with a few hundred children, as he sometimes did before taking ill.
Some observers fear that the elder Castro’s more active presence, even though it may not translate into direct interference, could still slow Raul Castro’s cautious efforts to revive the moribund socialist economy by encouraging more open policy debate and more individual initiative.
Few doubt that Fidel Castro’s steely “Socialism or Death” mantra put a brake on economic reforms initiated in the 1990s.
“He does not need to strain himself with an executive role, since he gets to give advice and who in hell is going to say ‘no thanks’ to his advice,” said one western businessman with interests in Cuba, who asked not to be named.
“Everything will take longer than it otherwise would and only lowest common denominator measures will be approved”.
By and large, many Cubans have welcomed their comandante’s comeback with the respect and affection one might bestow on a wise old grandfather home after a prolonged hospital stay.
“I don’t know what impressed me more. Seeing Fidel again speaking to the country and world, or his vision of what humanity faces,” school teacher Maria Julia Roche said in a telephone interview from Eastern Holguin province.
But many young people in Havana were too busy enjoying their summer vacation to pay much attention, and some opponents were openly scornful. Cuban dissident blogger Yoani Sanchez called him “a stuttering old man with quivering hands” in an opinion piece published by the Washington Post.
