The siren song of power is hard to resist. And it is particularly hard to resist for those who have been in office for some period of time. It is executive presidents who are the most vulnerable to the lure of its seductive melody; prime ministerial systems are altogether more collegial in the way they function to afford quite the same ‘high.’ In order that an incumbent does not become too comfortable in the post and is diverted into misusing power most Western democracies with executive presidencies set term limits, the United States being a prime example. Franklin D Roosevelt was the only American President to serve more than two terms; he was voted in on four occasions, although he was in office for less than three months following his fourth victory at the polls before dying of a cerebral haemorrhage. Thereafter, in 1951, the twenty-second Amendment to the US Constitution limited American presidents to two terms.
After the Latin republics’ experience with caudillos, term limits were written in to most of the South American constitutions as well. It is something, however, which has not sat well with some of the current generation of presidents. Those most tempted by the narcotic of continued office tend to be either to the left or the right of democratic. The best known example is that of President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, who after losing a referendum on constitutional reform which included a provision about abolishing the two-term restriction, went back to the people with a reformulated proposal which they then approved. His left-wing compadres in the hemisphere have moved in the same direction, and on the other side of the political divide, so has President Uribe of Colombia.
It is no accident that the executive heads of state who have gone for this particular constitutional amendment tend to be populists who perceive themselves as the key agents in altering the pattern of history. This is exemplified most clearly in the case of the Venezuelan head of state, who views himself as indispensable to the promulgation of his ‘bolivarian revolution.’ Less flamboyant presidents in more stable democracies such as Brazil and Chile, place more emphasis on institutions, rather than personalities to propel their nations forward. And in fact, that is indeed the secret of the success of the well established democracies. Modern nations cannot make significant progress without a solid institutional framework with diffuse autonomous centres of power and an effective arrangement of checks and balances. At least some of Guyana’s problems (although by no means all) derive from the fact that the tradition of the paramount leader has dominated political life since long before independence.
With the qualified exception of President Hoyte – he came to office courtesy of a rigged election – all our presidents have failed to fully grasp the damage that undermining the independence of such institutions causes. As it is, we are paying a heavy price for the misperception on the part of our leaders of how societies develop. The point is, the system is more important than the man (or woman), which is not to say that leaders are not important, or that at special times of crisis they assume a greater importance than would otherwise be the case; it is just to say that in peacetime facilitating becomes their major role as opposed to handing down orders. Karl Popper’s oft-quoted observation is worth repeating yet again, namely, that institutions are like fortresses; they have to be well built and well manned.
And now the term limits issue is being tested in the Co-operative Republic – or so it seems. Last week a group calling itself by the ponderous name, Guyanese Coalition For Jagdeo Third Term, distributed flyers and buttons promoting the notion. It lent credence to the AFC’s earlier claims that this was the intention, although the President himself has denied that he is seeking another term, most recently at a dinner with the private sector. The PPP itself – or at least its General Secretary – has also deemed the idea nonsense, but of course the party includes senior members like Mr Ramotar who harbour presidential ambitions of their own.
Mr Jagdeo was out of the country at the time, and one must presume the timing was intentional. However, it is difficult to conceive of any group spending money to have buttons made, etc, promoting a candidate unless they had at least some measure of tacit approval from the subject of their campaign, otherwise it would be a complete waste of funds and an utterly futile exercise. Perhaps they are just testing the waters, and also attempting to generate sufficient interest in the matter so that eventually President Jagdeo would be allowed to do his ‘back by popular demand’ act.
Assuming for the moment that some such scenario is the case, the practical impediments remain what they always were: the constitution would have to be changed which would mean either a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, or going to the electorate in a referendum. The first route would require the co-operation of the PNC – and presumably some carrot would have to be offered to Mr Corbin. If he accepted, he would lose what little support he retains among the traditional PNC constituency, and it is conceivable he might not even be able to carry all his parliamentarians with him in the house. As things stand, however, the PNCR in a press statement on Thursday dismissed the third term campaign as a diversion, and again said it was opposed to any such move.
But then there is the matter of the PPP itself. Could Mr Jagdeo deliver enough MPs from his own party for a vote of that kind? One must presume there would be powerful forces working against him. It may be, therefore, that a referendum would be seen as the preferred way to go, which was why on a previous occasion when the subject raised its head, the rumour was that a referendum would be tagged onto a local government election. The presidency, of course, is a greater source of patronage nowadays than Freedom House, and it is a moot point as to whether those who have some responsibility for the party machinery would be able to exert more influence on the rank and file than the President himself, who in spite of everything is still popular in the rural areas.
At the very least, he is better known to PPP supporters than any other senior party member, and exactly who could call in the most votes, therefore, is a matter of speculation for outsiders.
Theoretically, he could even in a referendum seek an accommodation with the PNC should they change their minds on the issue; the problem is Mr Corbin could not deliver any significant quantity of ‘yes’ votes from the traditional supporters of the main opposition; as popular as Mr Jagdeo might be in some Indian rural areas, the opposite is the case in African areas.
Referendum aside, Mr Jagdeo would still have to persuade the executive and central committees of his own party to accept him as their presidential candidate – although perhaps this would be agreed to in principle before a referendum was held. Either way, it may be that those engaged in the present promotion believe that he can swing the executive committee, and that if he won a referendum too the party would have no option but to endorse him.
Whether there is any real plot afoot, time will soon tell. What can be said is that any extension of the presidential term limit would be a fundamentally undemocratic move, and would bind us once again to the paramount leader principle. It would also be to subvert the constitution which all parties worked so hard to reform, placing one man in terms of importance above not just the country’s institutions, but even the framework of the state.
If President Jagdeo is really serious about not seeking a third term, he should quickly make it clear publicly to those promoting this proposal in his name that he is not in favour of abolishing term limits, and would not cooperate in any moves to achieve a constitutional amendment in this regard. If he doesn’t do this people will suspect him of ulterior motives.
Bad Idea for Guyana. Mr Surujbally is the key to this being a reality. If we do not have local Government election next year but really prepare for a national election with a new PPP presidential candidate, Jagdeo cork sink.
Why don’t he gwan from abee dee country. He had his time , he did little, now make way from another rasta. Let us get some new ideas since all his ideas were a failure.
My dream is for the PPP to put up a Afro-Guyanese candidate preferably Roger Luncheon or Robeson Benn.
What absurdity! Do you think Guyanese are that gullible? Why not tout Odinga Lumumba while you’re at it?
Sase, they say where there is smoke, there is fire! I believe Jagdeo should do as the editorial says and immediately denounce the exercise the same way, on return from an overseas trip, he ordered the swift removal of a billboard erected in his honor after the international tribunal’s ruling in favor of Guyana against Suriname over the CGX fiasco. Meanwhile, other than simply denying he is interested in a third term, Jagdeo’s actions, decisions and remarks in this current term reflect a man who has tasted raw political power and realized it can work for him for the rest of his life.
His frenetic efforts over the past several months to promote LCDS in an effort to bring in up to US$580M year for Guyana’s economy also do not reflect a man who is getting ready to sail off into the sunset. And what’s even more intriguing is that LCDS was not hatched in the boardroom of Freedom House on Robb Street, but in the Presidential Secretariat on New Garden Street. This means that Guyana’s economic plans, whatever they are right now, are being drafted and implemented by Jagdeo without any meaningful input from the PPP, even though the PPP picked him as its presidential candidate and was supposed hand him a plan crafted by the party.
As one former cabinet minister inferred in a published letter, the party actually came back to power in 1992 without an economic blueprint for recovery and development, and so this task fell to Jagdeo in 1999. He then spent the last 10 years working with the IMF/WB reducing Guyana’s foreign debt and toying with inconsequential investors. His vision literally lacked a major recovery and development plan that featured great emphasis on foreign direct investments from rich/capitalist countries to create jobs. That was until he had this amazing epiphany that said if he linked avoiding deforestation to economic development, he could rake in up to US$580M a year from rich/capitalist countries for the economy.
This ‘greening’ epiphany led him to launch a series of foreign visits and talks on avoiding deforestation and linking the effort to economic development, but while it gained him fame as a trailblazer on the environment, the desired benefits to the economy have not been forthcoming as hoped and based on recent reports, it doesn’t look good for Guyana in Copenhagen this December, either. Even he has offered no guarantee he will get the kind of money (US$580M a year) from rich/capitalist countries for his plan, and unless China, for pure political spectacle, steps in and ponies up the money, Jagdeo’s game plan will go down as a basic gamble he took and lost.
If Copenhagen delivers a solid sign in his favor in December, I think he will go all out for a third term because he will never walk away from his LCDS after all his efforts and leave it to someone else to come in and take the credit for watching it bear fruit. On the flip side, if Copenhagen does not deliver, he could jettison a third term and walk away blaming Guyana’s failure in the last ten years on the refusal of rich/capitalist countries to ‘help save the environment’.
And since LCDS was not hatched in Freedom House, but in OP, thus explaining why no prominent individual from Freedom House has been visibly active in helping Jagdeo sell/promote his LCDS to the nation or the world, it is not clear if Jagdeo does demit office in 2011whether the PPP will retain his emphasis on LCDS. In fact, no one knows what the PPP’s own economic plan looks like, assuming it has one for its next candidate in 2011.
I get the feeling that Jagdeo knows there is no one better or more popular than him in the PPP hierarchy, and so he will at least make a play for leading and controlling the party. What happens after that is up for speculation, but as of this moment, his behavior in office and aggressive promotion of LCDS speak volumes of a man who may be digging in for the long haul as President.
Well, Dandy Andy, what did you think the National Development Strategy which has been quietly shelved was all about? And do you REALLY think it was Jagadeo who was responsible for the Debt Write-off’s? Your strategy of Direct Foreign investments as a solve-all ideal seems doomed as those countries where Capitalism was allowed to run rampant will be up S— Creek without a paddle for a long time to come – it makes the Kaldor Bugdet of the 60’s -looking towards Local investment seem so much more sensible!!
Whatever happens, the clowns making decisions need to realise the best investment is in their people- starting with Education and Health
Sase “My dream is for the PPP to put up a Afro-Guyanese candidate preferably Roger Luncheon or Robeson Benn.”
You’ve staked out an interesting position in that you seem to be saying that only the PPP can leader Guyana. Minister Benn’s heavy handed behavior will only get worse if he were president and there is no daylight between Luncheon and Jagdeo ideologically. To have a black face as the leader of the PPP doesn’t make corruption and incompetence more palatable. What you’re proposing is a rearrangement of the deck chairs on the titanic as it sinks or should I say before the other two thirds of Guyana migrates. It’s time for the AFC or some other credible party undo the damage that’s been done.
Here’s a thought: could these public calls for a third term by some obscure group be the machinations of some opponent(s) of Jagdeo aimed at discrediting him? It seems entirely possible to me that these calls could be entirely independent of Jagdeo’s involvement (as distinct from Jagdeo’s desires, secret or otherwise). If so, it would not be unknown in our nasty political culture – this editorial itself suggested the same in relation to the Kwame McKoy affair (ie, a set up) – and stirring up such mischief could well be a possibility in the third term scenario. As for Jagdeo’s failure to distance himself from it clearly, that would explicable simply on the basis of his overweening ambition, hubris or fundamental intellectual limitations, or some combination of these factors.
Whatever the source of the push for a third term for Jagdeo, however, I agree with you that it would be disastrous for the country. He initially came to power through a manipulation of the constitution (a convoluted arrangement whereby Sam Hinds stepped down to make way for him), and more than a decade later, and despite wide-ranging constitutional reforms, amending the amendments to facilitate his continuation in office would signal how little progress has been made in Guyana with regard to restoring democracy.
Stokes:
I beg to diagree. Men like Benn and Luncheon are honourable people who really care for Guyana.
The fact, that at the last PPP’s congress, it (PPP) heard the resolution raised by Mr. Reepu Daman Persaud – calling for ‘a third term’ for Jagdeo., has, evolved into the latest charade staged by a so called ‘unknown group’, further, fuels legitimate concern about Mr. Jagdeo and the PPP’s communist nefarious designs and quest for power. It is in keeping with the PPP’s communist elite modas operandi.
However, it is rife with pitfalls !