The general election orchestra is tuning up already – at least for the purposes of the overture. And this is despite the fact that the full symphony is not due for a performance until next year, and local government elections – supposedly – may only be weeks away. But then being an anonymous member of an ensemble was never as alluring as being the conductor, and so some of the virtuoso talents who aspire to stand on the podium come 2011, are treating the electoral audience to a preview of what to expect.
Of course, this only represents some of the hopefuls, in so far as they all derive from the PPP – and perhaps not even all of those. The situation with the PNC is murky, since despite the party’s poor showing in the last election under the current leadership, Mr Corbin has evinced no inclination to step aside. There have been challenges to him, but to date, no one has succeeded in doing what Ms Kamla Persad-Bissessar managed in the case of the UNC in Trinidad. It has been suggested that if he leads what is now the main opposition into the next general election, it might no longer be the main opposition after the results come in. As it stands, some key party figures are no longer within the fold, and a certain lack of clarity hovers over the status of a few others. In short, there is still a measure of uncertainty at this stage about how events will play out, or even who ultimately will seek to hold the conductor’s baton for this political grouping next year.
If the situation in the PNC is in suspension, then it is even more so in the case of the AFC. Exactly what they will decide in terms of their candidate, will presumably depend on what happens in respect of the other parties; after all, it is not as if there is a huge floating vote out there – at least, there never has been in the past. For them to make a substantial advance on 2006, therefore, they would need to do so at the expense of one or other or both of the major parties, and for that reason the decision they would have to make would presumably have to be a strategic one in response to events.
There had been rumblings from the wings about a possible third term for the incumbent head of state, but that seems to have faded away, although whether the idea has been finally abandoned has not been openly stated. The shadowy lobby which was floating the proposal of a constitutional amendment to end term limits, never emerged into the glare of the spotlight to promote their cause, and given the time-frame available, the likelihood of it becoming a reality is greatly diminished – albeit not altogether impossible. The alignments and manoeuverings which would be necessary to pull it off, however, are fairly daunting, and would militate against success.
There has always been idle speculation about what would happen in the two big parties once the seniors in the old guard passed on. Where the PNC is concerned, as suggested above, that party appears subject to centrifugal forces, and it is too early to say what will emerge in the long term or what its fate will be. As for the ruling party, for it too, the era of the maximum leader has come to an end, and while Dr Jagdeo has managed to play that role ad interim by virtue of his presidential platform, once he steps down from there, his purchase on the PPP will shrivel considerably. In the meantime, personal ambition is revealing itself within the walls of Freedom House.
Having said that, it is not the members of a new generation who so far have declared themselves; it is those in the second rank of the old one. There was a time when the popular perception was that President Jagdeo’s favoured candidate to succeed him was Minister Robert Persaud. However, there has been no recent campaign in respect of his candidacy, and his name appears to have slipped into the background. The other younger member who has been mentioned – in the letter columns, at least – is Dr Frank Anthony, who has not himself publicly expressed an interest.
Those who have expressed an interest include the primus inter pares, Mr Donald Ramotar, the General Secretary of the PPP, and Messrs Ramkarran, Nagamootoo and Rohee. Of recent times there has been an obvious hiatus between Robb Street and Vlissengen Road, which took on a public aspect when Mr Navin Chandarpal was dismissed from his post in the Office of the President. However, there appears to have been a truce, if not a rapprochement, between Dr Jagdeo and the General Secretary at least, since the former included him in his entourage to visit Iran, and as this newspaper reported last month, he was likely to be given a cabinet post to make him more visible to the electorate. If this in fact turns out to be the case, it would be a clear indication that he is indeed the front runner.
It has to be noted that while all four of the above-mentioned would-be candidates have made public their interest – Messrs Ramkarran, Nagamootoo and Ramotar in interviews or in response to questions from this newspaper, and Mr Rohee in a press conference – it is not the PPP rank and file who will make the selection; the ruling party is not yet that democratic in its internal arrangements. This is an impediment for some aspirants, something which was acknowledged by Mr Nagamootoo, who recognized that he could only be the party’s choice if there were an open election at the level of congress. The PNC in theory is more democratic about selecting leaders; it is just that at present it is still burdened by allegations of fraud, albeit this time in relation to its internal democratic processes rather than the national ones.
Where the PPP is concerned, according to Mr Ramotar, the executive committee would hold discussions on the candidacy, and the results of these would be conveyed to the Central Committee for a final decision, which in turn would then be communicated to the party membership. Public campaigning, therefore, would not necessarily be very helpful to the ruling party hopefuls, since this would all appear to be about green-room style politicking. Several correspondents in the letter columns as well as other observers have remarked on the fact that none of those who have declared their interest have given any indication of what policies they favoured, or where they stood on certain issues. Others have expressed the view that there should be public debates, so PPP voters and the electorate in general can make comparisons. That, however, will probably not happen, since as already mentioned, this is not a vote at the level of congress, but a case of behind-the-scenes lobbying at the heart of the party’s power structure. Any deviation from the official line expressed in the public arena, therefore, would be a sure way to sink the chances of a possible candidacy.
What all this means is that if Dr Jagdeo is indeed prepared to throw the weight of his considerable patronage and influence in the highest councils of the party behind the General Secretary (who is in charge of the party machinery), then as said above, Mr Ramotar’s chances of becoming the presidential candidate of the PPP in 2011 would improve dramatically. In fact, the support of the President’s faction in the party committees may be critical to the success of any aspirant, and will spell the end of hope for anyone against whom that segment sets its face. It is for this reason, it has been said, that it would be difficult for Mr Ramkarran to succeed.
Having said that, of course, in human affairs the course of true ambition never did necessarily run smooth, and while one can speculate on probable outcomes, these things can never be predicted with absolute certainty. While those of a disposition to nudge the party in the direction of a more democratic mode of operating are not likely to succeed in time for the next general election, in the meantime, the public is being exposed to a leadership contest of sorts where the choice is not completely a foregone conclusion, as has been the case previously. It may not be the US primaries, but at least it introduces a small measure of novelty into the nation’s politics.
