MIAMI (Reuters) – The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be even more active than feared, leading US forecasters said yesterday as they predicted 10 hurricanes, five of them major, with a 76 percent likelihood that a major hurricane would hit the US coastline.
The outlook from the Colorado State University team follows predictions by US government scientists for an intense season that could disrupt efforts to contain a huge Gulf of Mexico oil spill and also batter earthquake-ravaged Haiti.
Increasing a previous estimate for a “very active” season, the leading CSU storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 18 named tropical storms. Of these, CSU saw 10 becoming hurricanes, with five becoming major Category 3 or higher hurricanes with winds above 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour).
The CSU scientists increased their forecast from an April 7 prediction of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
“The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 76 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,” said forecaster Phil Klotzbach, who works with Gray. The CSU team saw a 51 percent chance that a major hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and a 51 percent chance that one would hit the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.
It put the chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean at 65 percent.
The expected extreme hurricane season this year is seen posing a threat to efforts to control and clean up oil spewing from a ruptured Gulf of Mexico well owned by BP Plc, described by President Barack Obama’s administration as the worst environmental disaster in US history.
Experts warn that a storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico — an abnormal rise in sea level created by a hurricane — could whip the oil slick and chemicals used in trying to disperse it out of the Gulf and ashore on beaches, vegetation and even homes.
