CARACAS (Reuters) – Polls show Venezuela’s parliamentary election is a tight race between President Hugo Chavez’s allies and his opponents, but Chavez’s rising popularity and favourable election rules may tip the balance.
Chavez’s traditionally high popularity — in the 60s and 70s percentage range during his best moments of a more than decade-long rule — was hit this year by a recession, electricity and water supply problems, and high crime.
But new polls show that a recovery in his personal ratings, which began several months ago, continued in August, giving him cause for optimism ahead of the Sept. 26 National Assembly vote, which is seen as an indicator for the 2012 presidential election.
In recent weeks, Chavez has begun campaigning in earnest and after months of austerity the government has started pumping up the import sector, as well as offering cheap credit to consumers, creating some sense of economic recovery.
Whether Chavez’s rising popularity will convert into votes for candidates from his Socialist Party and its allies in the upcoming election remains to be seen.
A new survey by pro-government pollster GIS XXI said 52.6 percent of respondents planned to support candidates allied to Chavez, while 47.4 percent backed the opposition.
A poll last month by the well-respected IVAD polling firm, consulted by both the government and opposition, said 54.3 percent would vote Socialist and 45.7 percent for the opposition. Those results could be enough to give Chavez the two-thirds — or 110 of the 165 seats — he is aiming for, because an electoral law passed last year redrew some key voting districts to favor the Socialist Party, notably in rural areas, where Chavez’s support is strongest.
