Dear Editor,
An opinion poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association last week to track popular support for the political parties on the November 28 general elections showed the incumbent PPP/C is still ahead of the two main challengers. However, both APNU and AFC are making gains with APNU consolidating its former PNC base as AFC siphons off vote from the PPP. The UF is trailing way behind and is not making a significant showing.
The latest Guyana poll was conducted in face-to-face interviews with 560 voters representing the varied demographics of the population (44% Indians, 30% Africans, 16% Mixed, 9% Amerindians, and 1% other races). The survey was coordinated by Vishnu Bisram. The results of last week’s poll were analyzed at a 95% significance level and a statistical sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points was found. Sampling results based on each subgroup (such as Indians, Africans, Mixed, Amerindians) have a larger sampling error.
Asked which party they will vote for, 50% of the sample said PPP, followed by 30% APNU, 11% AFC, less than 1% TUF, and almost 9% undecided. With a margin of error of 5%, support could vary in either direction.
The findings show that APNU has been successful in attracting the traditional PNC support; AFC has lost some of the gains it made among the PNC base with many Africans and Mixed going to APNU; the AFC is making significant gains among traditional PPP supporters.
The outcome of the election will depend on voter turnout. There is a high level of apathy among the voters with a large number of them saying they will not vote. The undecided voters could very well decide the fate of the parties.
Voters were also asked which party is likely to win the election. There were divided opinions: 44% said the PPP will win the presidency as well as a majority of votes; an additional 21% said the PPP will win the presidency but not a majority of votes; 30% said no party will win a majority of votes.
With the election some two weeks away from when the latest poll was conducted, opinions could change. NACTA will conduct another poll from this weekend.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
