Dear Editor,
I teach American Politics and my students, many of whom are Guyanese, queried on Thursday who I thought would win the US Vice Presidential debate. My teaching colleagues also asked me for my view. I should note that this was an all Catholic debate – the first time in American history that the two Vice Presidential candidates are Catholics – not attractive to swing voters of other religious persuasions in an ethnically divided America. Catholics were historically Democrats until recently when they began to gravitate towards the Republican Party which historically has been Protestant oriented. My response to my students and colleagues was the debate would be a close draw with an edge going to the incumbent Democrat Joe Biden (former Senator of Delaware). I also stated it would have virtually no effect on the outcome of the Presidential contest with the polls not moving because of the V.P. debate. That appeared to have been the outcome as I watched the two men go after each other with neither one seeming to yield an inch to the other. It was a draw although I would give a marginal victory to Biden not significant enough to make a difference in the electoral contest. Guyanese I spoke with on the phone Thursday night and yesterday are divided on who won but more of them felt Biden edged out Ryan and some said it was a draw. The staff are divided on who won based on party affiliation.
In class yesterday, my students differed on who won with most of them saying Biden clobbered Republican Paul Ryan while others said Biden frequently disrupted Ryan and was very rude towards the Republican challenger. Biden’s frequent smirks and loud laughter did not endear him to viewers. My students felt it was outright disrespectful.
Biden is an experienced debater and a senior politician serving in Congress for over thirty years. He is known for his vast knowledge of foreign policy and domestic legal issues. Virtually no American legislator knows foreign issues as well as him and can provide more effective responses than him to questions pertaining to American Foreign policy and law. And during the debate, he was sharp and very articulate using language skillfully that would impress any English major. He outclassed his opponent in the usage of varied language. But Ryan held his own and made no slip ups and in fact Ryan seems to have provided more substance than Biden in directed questions. Ryan’s performance showed he is a formidable opponent. He showed he understands foreign policy and is equipped to address domestic concerns. Surprisingly, Ryan made the audience and Biden laugh with his one liner on Biden’s tendency to say stupid things when challenged about Romney’s 47% remark about those who don’t pay taxes.
Both sides achieved their goal not to lose support. Biden went on the offensive while Ryan played defensive strongly defending his leader Mitt Romney on his political gaffes. Biden tried to push Ryan to the right but Ryan kept hitting back and going towards the centre frustrating Biden. The Romney-Ryan campaign recognizes that in order to win the election, the ticket has to move to the centre to attract floating voters. The Obama-Biden team recognizes that in order to avoid defeat, they have to paint Romney/Ryan as too extreme and push them far right to turn off swing voters. Ryan kept coming back to the centre. Biden did what Obama should have done last week – attack Romney.
He steadied the leaking ship that was taking on water very fast on course to sinking. Obama’s lacklustre performance damaged his ticket badly and now he is tied with Romney in polls after leading for over a month by big numbers. With this terrific performance, Biden has lifted the spirits of democrats. The only negative out of the VP debate would be whether the media focus on his grinning and his rude attitude towards his opponent. If that happens, the ticket would be hurt. In terms of poll numbers, the candidates performed similarly on whether respondents thought they were qualified to be president: 60 percent thought Ryan qualified and 38 percent did not. They said Biden was qualified by a 57 percent to 42 percent margin.
It seems to me neither side lost points in the debate and the poll on popular electoral support is not likely to move as a result of that performance. Call it a draw. In fact, some polls showed Biden won while others showed Ryan won. One more debate slip up from Obama and the race could be over. However, I don’t think Obama will perform as poorly as he did last week. I think he will go on the offensive and hold his own.
I am anticipating a close contest in Tuesday’s debate with the edge going to Romney. I think Romney will move to the centre to endear himself with independents. It is the only way for him to have a chance to win.
If Romney moves closer to the centre, Obama could find himself in deep trouble in the remaining three weeks of the campaign. If Romney addresses immigration (proposing some kind of relief for illegals) and Social Security, he can win enough Hispanics and Asians as well as worried seniors and move ahead in the polls for an upset victory in November.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
