Having considered the Scottish referendum and the Catalan independence movement in previous editorials in September, we would be remiss if we did not now comment on last Sunday’s non-binding vote on independence for Catalonia.
In the face of the Spanish central government’s rigid opposition to the vote and even though Spain’s constitutional court had ruled that a formal, unilateral referendum would be illegal, the regional government of Catalonia, based in Barcelona, still proceeded to hold what it called a “consultation of citizens.”
More than two million Catalans out of an estimated 5.4 million eligible voters took part in the ballot, which asked them two questions – whether they wanted Catalonia to be a state and whether they wanted that state to be independent. Just over 80 per cent answered yes to both questions.
Although those who voted in the informal consultation represented only about 41 per cent of the Catalan electorate, regional president Artur Mas hailed the result “a great success,” signalling that he would next seek “the right to a referendum.”
The Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, is, nevertheless, determined to continue playing hardball with Mr Mas and the independence camp. He believes that the relatively low voter turnout proved that the consultation was an “absolute failure.” He may also be buoyed by opinion polls that suggest that only 50 per cent of Catalans want full independence.
Mr Rajoy has therefore dismissed the vote as a propaganda stunt, lacking democratic validity. He insists that the fact that “two thirds” of Catalan voters stayed away is sufficient proof that there is not majority support for independence and that the consultation has simply exposed the weakness of the movement instead of being a show of force.
Even though his maths may be a little askew and in spite of some criticism of his stance, Mr Rajoy also says that he has no intention of proposing any special plan to put a brake on the independence movement, apart from ruling out any possibility of negotiation for a referendum. In this respect, the prime minister has stated that the only legal route for Mr Mas is to initiate a process of constitutional reform in the Catalan parliament. Any such move to include self-determination would eventually have to be considered by the national legislature, where Mr Rajoy would bank on the ruling Popular Party’s ability to block reform that would threaten national sovereignty and the integrity of the Spanish state.
For Mr Rajoy, national sovereignty is non-negotiable and his declared intention is now to focus on pulling Spain out of its ongoing economic crisis as a means of defusing Catalan separatist sentiments.
Mr Mas and his supporters are elated at Sunday’s result, believing that the separatist movement has gained momentum. Mr Mas also appears determined to pursue a referendum on independence although he may have to contend with the possibility of legal action by the Spanish state for his part in holding the informal consultation.
The game is still very much afoot and there is every indication that the limits of constitutional legality will continue to be tested. But, notwithstanding the political brinkmanship and rhetoric coming from both Mr Rajoy and Mr Mas, the opinion polls and historical voter patterns do not provide any certainty or comfort to either separatists or unionists with regard to the outcome of any possible, future referendum.
Meanwhile, the irony has not escaped many that on the same day that Catalans were voting in an almost festive atmosphere in most of their region, on the possibility of breaking away from their unitary state, Germany and the rest of Europe were celebrating the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, which heralded the reunification of a divided nation.
