Dear Editor,
In reference to ‘Jagdeo to lead Common-wealth observer team to Sri Lanka’s elections’ (Dec 29, 2014), it is a critical election and the global community wishes to certify that a free and fair presidential election will be held on January 8, especially in light of allegations of irregularities in the last election and the brutality meted out to the minority Tamil population. Besides Jagdeo’s team, India’s former Chief Election Commissioner, SY Quraishi, is leading a team of Asian observers. There is also the Forum of Election Management Bodies of South Asia and official observers of SAARC, Caricom’s counterpart of that region. Sri Lanka’s election commission is exuding confidence about holding a free and fair election but the proof would be in the pudding after the voting. Results are expected on the 9th. There is faith in Jagdeo and other observers to guarantee a free and fair election.
The election has been called two years early because the incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa feels he can win a record third term and the longer he waits to call an election, the less his chances of winning. The constitution was recently amended to remove term limits allowing him to seek re-election. But he could be in for a surprise.
There are no formal published polls predicting the outcome of the elections, but it is expected to be a very close call between Rajapaksa of the UFPA and Maithripala Sirisena of the opposition NDF. Sirisena was a Minister in Rajapaksa’s government breaking with the President at the end of November over corruption, and how inquiries surrounding ethnic atrocities were handled. Sirisena took everyone by surprise when he switched over to be the opposition candidate; even Rajapaksa didn’t see it coming.
The NDF feels Sirisena offers the best prospect to defeat Rajapaksa and to hold him accountable for atrocities and allegations of corruption. There are a dozen other candidates but they are all spoilers and unlikely to get 2% combined of the vote.
It will be most difficult (but not improbable) for Rajapaksa to clear 50%. I came across Rajapaksa in Trinidad for the Commonwealth summit in 2008. He has a photogenic face, but deep down he is a cunning, mean politician who knows how to win international public relations. He had iconic cricketer Sanath Jayasuriya as one of his MPs and got other cricketing icons Muralitharan, Jayawardena, etc, to campaign for him. He runs a government in which his brother is a minister and three other brothers are also politicians along with nephews and his son in important positions – it is a family political enterprise. And they have been accused of using their office for self-enrichment.
Like Guyana, Sri Lanka has serious ethnic conflict. The Tamils (known as Madrasis in Guyana and the Caribbean) used violence to force the creation of a separate Tamil state after the government failed on its promises to institutionalize a federal system with the decentralization of powers.
The violence killed tens of thousands and rendered hundreds of thousands homeless. India tried to broker a resolution to the conflict and even sent tens of thousands of troops to enforce a peace agreement that was violated by both sides. Eventually Indian troops were caught in the violence and shot at both sides. After suffering heavy losses, Indian troops packed up and left, as they were not allowed to defend themselves in an unclear, undefined mission. India is trying once more to get Colombo to enforce the terms of an international truce that would grant the Tamils decentralized control of areas where they would live under a federal structure. Rajapaksa said he would honour the agreement, but five years after the war ended, he is yet to act. Meanwhile, there are commissions of inquiry (including votes at the UN and at Geneva) into the Tamil genocide carried out by Rajapaksa’s government, and responsibility is pointing to the top. Soldiers have been accused of atrocities against Tamils, tens of thousands of whom were killed.
The soldiers were accused of killing people in cold blood including the son (a little boy) of the Tamil military leader (Velupillai Prabhkaran) with pictures showing the kid gunned down by soldiers in cold blood while eating biscuits given to him by the same soldiers; no soldier was charged.
Because of the ethnic atrocities, several Commonwealth leaders including Harper of Canada, Manmohan Singh of India, and Kamla Persad-Bissessar of Trinidad and Tobago boycotted the Commonwealth Summit in Colombo in 2013. Prime Minister Cameron of Britain went to the summit after first stopping in Chennai to assuage the feelings of the Tamils, and travelled to areas for a first-hand experience of the conditions under which Tamils live in northern Sri Lanka. Chennai (Madras) is the capital of the state of Tamil Nadu which is a short distance from Sri Lanka, and the Tamil Nadu government has taken a keen interest in the conditions of Tamils in Sri Lanka. Tamil Nadu has advocated Indian’s intervention to protect the Tamils in Sri Lanka. There are concerns that the army would prevent the Tamils from voting. The army does not want Rajapaksa to lose the election, fearing Sirisena would hold them accountable for human rights violations. But Sri Lanka’s election head has given the assurance that the police would guarantee that the army has no role in the conduct of the elections.
Tamils are expected to vote overwhelmingly for Sirisena who, like Rajapaksa, is an extreme Sinhalese (70% of the population) ethno-nationalist.
He served as Home Affairs and Defence Minister as well as General Secretary of UFPA when Tamils were massacred. But Tamils view him as the lesser of two evils. Tamils are mostly Hindu with about 5% being Muslim who suffer extreme prejudice from the Sinhalese who are mostly Buddhist and whom anthropologists believe originate from Bengal Indians.
Rising prices, corruption, one-family rule and anger with the UFPA are hurting Rajapaksa’s chances at the polls. The voting, counting and outcome are being watched carefully in Delhi, Europe and Washington. I met and interviewed members of Tamil communities all over Europe in recent travels, including Frankfurt a couple days ago; they are also keenly following the election. Pressure would be on the winner to bring closure to the Tamil conflict.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
