Dear Editor,
In Trinidad, neither major party (political force) – the ruling Peoples Partnership or United National Congress and opposition PNM ‒ enjoys a significant advantage over the other in terms of popular political support or seats projected to win, according to the findings of an ongoing tracking opinion poll being conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Associa-tion. The election (based on Nacta intercept contact polling through July 10) is very tight and can swing either way in a narrow victory by one or two seats. The minor parties are polling small amounts of support and are not projected to win a single seat but could impact the outcome of the elections in all the marginal constituencies as they dent the traditional support base of the two major parties.
The latest poll of 400 voters nationally (40% Indians, 38% Africans, 20% Mixed, and 2% Others) and 100 voters (reflecting the demographics) in each of several marginal seats (closely contested based on the racial demographics) over the last week, and based on trends in several Nacta polls over the last two months, show both major contenders winning eighteen seats each and five very tight that could go either way. Some seats among the 18 projected for each party are competitive and could change hands depending on candidate selection and the swing in support as the campaign gears up.
Some quarter of the likely voters are undecided with many saying the PP’s candidate will determine how they vote; the PNM has already selected its 41 candidates. If the election were held right now, the PNM will eke out a 21-20 victory. However, the UNC has not announced candidates as yet, whereas the PNM has announced candidates. Once the right candidates are chosen, the PP/UNC could win a minimum 21 seats.
All the polls have a closely contested race though other polls have either the UNC or PNM in the lead.
Voters are displeased with representation in several marginal seats (all controlled by the UNC) but most of them are trending PP except for three that will give the PNM the 21 seats it needs. But one of the seats (trending PNM) is so tight that it could go either way. For all practical purposes, the election is a dead heat.
In terms of popular support nationally, the PNM is polling 34%, PP 34%, ILP 4%, TFM 2%, MSJ 2%, and Undecided 24%. Based on these numbers, it would seem that whatever alliance is formed among the various parties could determine the outcome of the elections especially in the critical marginals.
The poll was organized by this writer who has been conducting opinion polls in T%T since 1995.
Yours faithfully
Vishnu Bisram
