UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – Russia’s military buildup in Syria appears to have forced US President Barack Obama to two unpalatable conclusions: He cannot ignore Moscow, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may survive for some time.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, isolated after his annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, secured a meeting with Obama on Monday largely as a result of his surprise movement of planes and tanks into Syria.
Both sides said they were looking for ways to work with one another to end the Syrian civil war. And, according to a US official, they agreed their militaries should coordinate to prevent Russian and US-led coalition forces from inadvertently clashing over Syria.
A US official told Reuters the United States believes Russia has sent four Sukhoi Su-34 “Fullback” fighter-bombers, its latest deployment of aircraft to a base near the Russian naval facility at Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
With Moscow a staunch backer of Assad and keen to keep its foothold in the Middle East, analysts said the buildup may force Washington to abandon its goal of Assad’s departure, at least for now.
As Obama’s former Middle East policy coordinator, Phil Gordon, has argued, the White House may need to explore ways to stop the bloodshed and alleviate the human suffering while holding its nose over Assad’s departure.
At least 200,000 people have died in the conflict, displacing millions and leading to the rise of the Islamic State militant group, which has exploited the power vacuum to seize control of parts of Syria and neighbouring Iraq.
“What’s needed is a new diplomatic process that brings all the key external actors to the table and agrees on a messy compromise to de-escalate the conflict – even if that means putting off agreement on the question of Assad,” Gordon, who worked at the White House until April, wrote on Friday in Politico Magazine.
Despite the stated US position that Assad has lost the legitimacy to lead Syria and must go, officials have long said they see no policy likely to achieve this at an acceptable cost.
