Dear Editor,
Some PPP supporters have stated that if the economic trouble under the coalition government continues or worsens, it strengthens the chances of the PPP returning to power. I agree that the government of the day takes the hog’s share of the blame for an imploding economy. It is common sense given that they control the economy. While the coalition government inherited from the PPP an economy in decline, any worsening or acceleration of that decline, or failure to resuscitate the economy will fall squarely on the shoulders of the coalition government. After all, the coalition knew what it was getting into and it has five years to turn around the economy. But is the economy as pivotal an election issue in Guyana as it is in the developed world where governments typically fall if they mismanage the economy, or election season occurs in the midst of an economic slowdown?
It isn’t for Indians and Africans who predominantly vote race and will vote for their ethnic parties. It is for some Amerindians and Mixed voters who mostly vote issues or rather, refuse to vote because of issues. With the Indian and African populations representing roughly 40% and 30% of the general and voting population based on historical trends, the coalition and PPP are largely assured of this chunk of the national vote. For the PPP under Mr Bharrat Jagdeo’s domination, that roughly 40% of the national vote is likely all it will get in 2020. A Jagdeo-dominated PPP will not get non-Indian votes. Amerindians will be dominated by the coalition government under the system of central government domination the PPP created to hold Amerindian communities hostage. Just as the Amerindian voting pool was largely cajoled into voting PPP by this system of dependency and domination, the coalition government will benefit similarly. So, the PPP will not get anything but a shred of the Amerindian vote. Similarly, the Mixed vote will not touch the PPP. However, these two groups, which likely account for about 30% of the overall vote, are likely to not vote as heavily in any recessionary environment.
The question will be whether the coalition government can secure about a third of that 30% of the national vote that comprises Amerindians and Mixed voters to overcome the PPP. Unless the coalition government engages in some catastrophic misfeasance or expands this march to despotism or worse, the coalition is likely to get that slim advantage owing largely to Mr Jagdeo’s presence atop the PPP. Mr Jagdeo and those in charge of the PPP will force enough crossover voters away from the PPP by 2020 and into the arms of the coalition government to give it the upper hand. The PPP will get virtually no crossover voters in 2020. Indeed, a significant chunk of these crossover voters will not vote at all in decrepit economic times but the coalition is likely to get enough at the end of the day. The other factor these PPP supporters fail to consider is that of all the ethnic groups in this country, none flee economic privation faster than Indians. Prolonged economic decline under a coalition government spells demographic disaster for the PPP and corresponding electoral trouble. The Indian population as a percentage of the general population declined from 51.93% to 48.63% from 1980 to 1991 under the PNC economic miasma. Surprisingly, the Indian population slipped to 43.45% by 2002 after a decade of PPP rule, which was during a period that captured most of the best period of economic growth under the PPP. Indians departed heavily under Mr Jagdeo’s rule that delivered a pitiful 2.23% annualized GDP growth for 12 years with runaway crime in tow.
Using the historical trends, the Indian population could be a maximum of 35% of the national vote by 2020 and the coalition’s task of defeating the PPP would be much easier. The prolonged economic collapse some within the PPP are crowing over and hoping for will lead to painful electoral manifestations for the PPP. If the economy rebounds, the Jagdeoite PPP’s hold on Indian votes could dissipate and a critical subset of Indians will both switch allegiances to the coalition or simply refuse to vote PPP in 2020. This Jagdeoite-controlled version of the PPP is stuck in a racial wedge holding onto a single constituency that keeps declining. The only salvation for this version of the PPP is that the coalition does something utterly disastrous although even so, the PPP will still not get crossover votes but could benefit from the coalition’s loss of crossover votes and the increased non-participation of crossover voters. The upside for the coalition from good governance is tremendous. The PPP has no room to move upwards on its own. It can only advance if the coalition evaporates its own advantage.
Yours faithfully,
M Maxwell
