Northern Guyana is currently transitioning into the secondary wet season and the output from the Seasonal Climate Outlook model for November 2017 to January 2018 suggests higher chances, 85-90% of above-average rainfall across Guyana (average for northern Guyana is 600mm and 130 mm for southern Guyana).
According to a press release yesterday from the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), the Hydromet Office forecasts that the secondary wet season will begin during the second half of November, and based on historical records it is expected to conclude by mid-February 2018, while southern Guyana’s dry season is expected to continue until mid-April 2018.
Cooler than average sea-surface temperatures of approximately 0.5 degree C have been recorded in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, according to the MoA release. Model consensus is that these conditions will continue well into January, 2018. In addition, the atmospheric conditions over the eastern Equatorial Pacific are consistent with cold neutral to borderline weak La Nina conditions. The La Nina phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation usually results in an increase in precipitation in Guyana.
According to the MoA release, the highest rainfall totals are expected in Regions 1 to 6, 7 and 10, while Region 9 will continue to be relatively dry. While northern Guyana would normally experience 40 to 64 days of more than 1mm of rainfall from November to January, the Seasonal Climate Outlook model suggests that there will be between 46 to 65 rain days in the upcoming rainfall season.
The forecasted higher chances of above-average rainfall is expected to recharge reservoirs, conservancies and aquifers, limiting local concerns of drought in northern Guyana, the MoA release said. Water accumulation in poor drainage areas is expected which can lead to localized flooding, an upsurge in mosquito breeding and other mosquito related pests. Additionally, farmers are advised to keep their drains clear to prevent flooding, especially in flood-prone areas.
According to the MoA release, for short range forecasts and weather analyses, stakeholders are advised to follow the Daily Weather Briefs, Outlooks and Advisories produced by the National Weather Watch Centre or visit www.hydromet.gov.gy. The forecast desk can be reached at 261-2284 / 261-2216.