It is not uncommon in instances of political crisis, whether domestic or international, for the tide of events to roll along sedately for a period then suddenly, without warning, accelerate alarmingly, sometimes leaving analysts scrambling to keep pace with events.
The hastening pace of events in Venezuela’s protracted political crisis, literally over the weekend, may not have come as a complete shock to watchers but the developments over the past few days unmistakably suggest that the Nicholas Maduro administration’s battle for political survival against what has developed into a formidable domestic and international alliance is now well and truly enjoined.
Arguably the most significant events in the unfolding saga occurred outside of Venezuela, not least President Trump’s refusal to rule out military action against the Maduro administration and after that the move by the heavy political hitters in the EU, Spain, France, Germany and the UK to recognize Juan Guaido, the President of the National Assembly, as the country’s Interim President ahead of fresh elections.
In turn Mr. Maduro addressed a rally in Caracas ostensibly to mark the 20th Anniversary of Hugo Chavez rise to power but almost certainly in an attempt to rally the faithful as his political opponents inside and outside the country work up an increasingly intense head of steam.
Arising out of all this is the fact that there can now be no doubt that the crisis in Venezuela is now unmistakably an extension of the wider struggle for global influence amongst the superpowers. Russia and China still appear to be in the corner of the Venezuelan administration never mind the fact that the continuing loss of hemispheric support must be placing an even more depressing damper on the moods of Maduro and his top aides.
All that being said and while the bigger picture makes for interesting analysis it is the implications of events in Venezuela, Guyana’s neighbour to the west, that must concern us most. The fact of Venezuela’s ongoing territorial claim against Guyana and how that stacks up in the context of the unfolding crisis must clearly be our primary preoccupation, not least because one cannot rule out the likelihood that the circumstances in Caracas could become a pretext for renewed hostilities against Guyana. That option, after all has not been without precedent.
Contextually, it should be pointed that it is not without significance that there exists a physical link between Guyana and the crisis in Venezuela as exemplified in the fact that Venezuelans fleeing the crisis are continuing to strike out for the neighbouring country closest to wherever they might be, Guyana included. News continues to reach the coast regarding the inevitable pressures resulting from the sudden and unexpected significant population increase and in some instances the attendant tensions between the visiting and host populations.
It need hardly be said that Guyana’s economic circumstances renders the challenge of hosting arriving Venezuelans daunting, to say the least. Leaving aside the challenges associated with demands on key resources, not least food, accommodation and medical care there are also considerations associated with relationships between the host population and the Venezuelan refugees and as far as we are aware tensions have already manifested themselves in what, so far, would appear to be fairly manageable incidents.
The fact of the matter is, however, that the longer the situation persists the more difficult and dangerous it becomes since uncontrolled migration could inevitably bring with it genuine refugees as well as criminals. Certainly, it is a factor that the authorities here cannot afford to ignore.
The situation insofar as Guyana/Venezuela relations is concerned is rendered more worrying by the ongoing boundary controversy, Venezuela’s refusal to appear at the International Court of Justice and late in December the hostile interception by a Venezuelan Navy ship in Guyana waters of a seismic vessel operating on behalf of the American oil company ExxonMobil, the incident having been reported to the United Nations by the Government of Guyana.
The significance of the December incident is twofold. First, it is part of the customary ploy by Venezuela, to employ aggression against Guyana as a means of distracting attention from internal problems. The incident is significant, too, insofar as it signals the Maduro administration’s discomfiture with the developmental prospects for Guyana arising out of what, over the past nearly four years, has been the discovery, offshore Guyana, of significant deposits of oil and the imminent commencement of oil recovery.
While CARICOM, as a whole remains aware of events in Venezuela, Caracas’s internal turmoil presents a challenge of a much greater magnitude for Guyana. Setting aside what has already been mentioned, that is, with ‘managing’, less than adequate resources, the flow of cross-border arrivals from Venezuela there is, as well, the responsibility of remaining alert to a substantive military threat and even lower level attempts to ‘test’ the loyalty of Guyanese. After all, Venezuela’s role in the 1969 Rupununi Uprising can hardly be forgotten.
Then there is the task accruing to the government of monitoring developments in Venezuela with a view to pre-empting and/or responding to such threats as might materialize. The requisite action, as always, will have to be diplomatic and must of necessity ensure that our CARICOM partners remain ‘on side’ and that the wider international community remain, not least the UN, engaged with the boundary controversy in the event of an act of substantive military hostility against Guyana.
Domestic political differences have not, in the past, been a significant factor insofar as a cohesive national posture on Venezuela’s territorial claim against Guyana and the aggression from Caracas is concerned and that, one hopes, will remain the case. What should be borne in mind in assessing the potential magnitude of the situation are, first, the fact that the Maduro administration is clearly fighting for its political life and may well be prepared to do what it has to do, so to speak, (Mr. Maduro has said that he does not rule out the possibility of a civil war in Venezuela) to defend itself. Secondly, and critically for Guyana, all of this is happening at a time when, more than any time in the past, Guyana may be on the cusp of a game-changing economic breakthrough. This, therefore, is as much a time for a high level of diplomatic alertness as it is for stepped up national vigilance.
