Oil and gas have changed risk and reward that govern behaviour of political parties

Dear Editor,

The Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ), on June 18, 2019, ruled that the No-Confidence Motion (NCM) which was tabled and successfully passed in the National Assembly on December 21, 2018, is valid and unimpeachable. The Court did not issue any consequential orders but delayed it until today  to allow the government and the Opposition to agree on a way forward, which if successful will be incorporated into the orders.  If the government and the Opposition are unable to reach such an agreement, then the Court will hand down what it believes to be the best way forward. What is certain, however, is that the government must resign and call for elections at a time that is (ideally) agreed upon by both sides, since the original deadline of the NCM of March 19, 2019, has long passed. In a separate but related judgment, the Court ruled that President David Granger’s unilateral appointment of the Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) was flawed and unconstitutional.  

The CCJ’s ruling brought much-needed clarity to the meaning and intention of Article 106 (6) and 161 (2) of the Guyana Constitution. Beyond this, however, and any consequential orders the Court will hand down, it can do no more to help put Guyana on a clear path forward. Only the government and the Opposition can bring an end to the economic and political uncertainties that weigh on the nation. Whether the President will rescind the appointment of GECOM’s Chairman and appoint a new Chairman as prescribed by the Constitution, and whether the government will resign and set the earliest date for elections rest entirely with the President. Having due regard for the Court and the fact that it no longer enjoys the confidence of the National Assembly, there should be no hesitation with effecting these orders. Unfortunately, the government’s reaction to the Court’s ruling does not inspire confidence that it will comply with the Constitution, despite publicly stating otherwise, but instead adds more confusion and uncertainty to the future.    In his address to the nation on June 19, 2019, the President maintained that his unilateral appointment of GECOM’s Chairman was not flawed.  He further stated that “… we cannot proceed with elections on the current list, it is outdated and corrupted. It holds as many as 200,000 incorrect entries. What is more, those who have reached the age of eighteen since the last elections are not on it”. For these reasons, the President is demanding house-to-house registration before calling for elections. There is, however, no evidence to substantiate these claims. In fact, all persons from the age of fourteen are registered on a continuous basis as is mandated by the National Registration Act of 2014. Continuous registration was introduced to ensure the voters’ list is always updated to facilitate elections on short notice.  Further, Article 106 (6) of the Constitution requires that elections be held no later than 90 days after the government is defeated by a vote of no-confidence, a deadline that can only be extended by two-thirds of the National Assembly. 

To understand the current political impasse and have a sense of what possibly lies ahead, it is necessary to understand the role of oil and gas in its making.  Oil and gas have completely changed the risk and reward that govern the behaviour of political parties. With billions in oil revenues expected in 2020, the political reward for controlling the public’s purse has never been higher. Higher reward encourages higher risk, political parties are willing to take more risk to control the state. The government, judging from its actions, appears willing to defy the Constitution and any consequential orders handed down by the CCJ to retain power. The problem with this risk-reward tradeoff or gamble, however, is that there is never a true winner. It is a downward spiral that almost always ends in political, economic and social tragedies. At best the result is a government that does not enjoy the public’s trust and confidence and is seen as illegitimate and undemocratic, and a society that is frustrated, broken, divided, hopeless, and has lost faith in the political system.        The time to change course and put the interest and future of the Guyanese people first is now. The consequences of the actions and decisions of all political parties, particularly those that control the government will be with Guyana for decades to come. The responsibility is on all parties including international organizations and citizens to ensure Guyana is a free, democratic, and prosperous nation. The President, above all else, has the golden opportunity to steer Guyana towards this future by unconditionally honouring the Constitution, resign his government and set a date for elections. All other political parties share an equal responsibility to continue to defend the Constitution and help cultivate an environment of peace and stability. International organizations with a mandate to defend democracy must not be silent or sparing in their defence. Finally, citizens must continue to demand transparency and accountability from the government. 

Yours faithfully,

Dhanraj Singh,

Executive Director

Guyana Budget Policy Institute