As SN editorialised on Tuesday, the allegation by the Russians that Britain is completing a military base on one of the islands in the Essequibo River with a view to training Venezuelan refugees for reconnaissance and sabotage in the neighbouring state is total fantasy. Guyana responded to this extraordinary announcement with a brief and ill-constructed statement, notable for its timidity and the non-sequitur of the final paragraph. No outrage there.
What was unusual about this claim was its provenance as well as its primary target, i.e. the UK. In addition, it did not raise boundary issues directly as such; it was, as already mentioned, about Guyana being used as a base to bring down President Nicolás Maduro’s government. The statement has been accorded only minimal coverage in Venezuela itself, even in official sources, while President Maduro for his part has been more preoccupied recently with making allegations against his old arch-foe, former president Uribé of Colombia whom he has accused of plotting to assassinate him, than he has with Guyana. This latest Russian condemnation, without question has its origins in the Kremlin, not in Caracas.
It is not as if the Russians themselves do not know this is ‘fake’ news, to use President Trump’s favourite term. Apart from all their sources within Guyana who will have confirmed this, they have enough hardware spinning around Earth out there in the stratosphere to reassure them that no military bases are currently taking shape on Wakenaam, Leguan or Hog Island − or any of the other myriad islands in the Essequibo estuary, for that matter. So what game is President Vladimir Putin playing? After all, he is no stranger to misrepresenting the truth; look what happened in east Ukraine.
Perhaps the question which should be asked is why he raised the matter at this particular juncture, because it was the British themselves who at the end of last year gave him something of a handle − albeit a highly tenuous one – to hang on to, and he could have used it at any time. On December 30, 2018, the then Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson gave an interview to the Telegraph, in which he imagined Britain playing a different role in the world after Brexit. Mr Williamson was quoted as saying, “I am also very much looking at how can we get as much of our resources forward based, actually creating a deterrent but also taking a British presence. We are looking at those opportunities not just in the Far East but also in the Caribbean as well.”
The then Defence Secretary did not actually name the two Caribbean territories, one of which could be a possible site for the UK’s renewed ‘global reach’ ambitions, but unnamed sources cited by the newspaper, gave them as Guyana and Montserrat. Since the Telegraph was the paper involved, and the report was never subsequently denied, everyone assumed that the ‘source’ was official. Mr Williamson had already come under considerable criticism during his tenure for his indiscretion and use of sometimes inappropriate language for a minister in his position, and now his interview came into the sights of his critics. The opposition ridiculed his comments and the Remainers scoffed at them, while some left-wing commentators queried as to whether Guyana had even been asked. (Montserrat is British territory.)
This did not stop some media outlets like the UK Defence Journal getting carried away by Guyana’s supposed advantages, but all was soon forgotten in the information fog because Mrs May’s government went out of office, and along with it Mr Williamson – at least as Secretary of Defence. Since then, all has been confusion, and no one knows what kind of government will eventually come into power after what is presumed will be an autumn election, or whether Mr Williamson’s grandiose plans will ever be adopted, even if there is an unlikely combination of the will, the money and Guyana’s agreement.
The Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman who denounced the imaginary bases on an Essequibo island, was the same one who had earlier decried UK ‘global reach’ ambitions, both in the South China Sea and the Caribbean. Now it is true that Moscow sees the UK as severely weakened by Brexit, and she has been sending her planes regularly into British airspace, to be chased out by the RAF, something which would not have happened a few years ago. What may have triggered the latest reaction is a concern about the Tullow find, because that gives Britain a vested economic interest in Guyana, and possibly from the Kremlin’s point of view, in protecting this country’s maritime space.
Exactly why that should be important to the Russians, would depend on whether they had decided it was in their interest to prop up Mr Maduro or not. Earlier reports in the Western press said Moscow was divided on that matter, the Telegraph reporting in May that discussions were held with the Americans about Russia withdrawing its support for the current Venezuelan head-of-state, provided its investments would be secure under a Guaidó administration. That, however, said the paper, was contingent on Russia adjusting its stance in east Ukraine, something which, one would have thought, was highly unlikely.
If nothing came out of those talks, and it seems nothing did, Moscow must have been doubly unsettled to learn from an Associated Press report earlier this week that the Americans were talking to Diosdado Cabello, the second most important man in Venezuela, about what it would take for him to defect from the government and support Mr Guaidó. This is despite the fact that the Americans consider him a drug trafficker and responsible for massive corruption.
They are also talking to other insiders, said the AP, who want immunity from prosecution in the event of a transition government taking office. If the US succeeds, then the Russians fear they may lose their investments in Venezuela. They would not have had concerns about the Norway-brokered Barbados talks, in contrast, which have moved with all the dispatch of spilt treacle, and at the moment are stalled.
What the latest accusation from the Kremlin about the Essequibo base would seem to suggest, therefore, is that Russia has decided to prop up Mr Maduro after all, firstly as a way of securing its massive investments in the neighbouring country, and secondly, as a way of maintaining its own ‘global reach’ and aggravating the Americans, in this case in Latin America. If that is the aim – and that has always been the position of the head of Rosneft, Russia’s oil giant to which PDVSA owes so much money – then past ‘friendship’ with Guyana is neither here nor there.
It might be added to the mix that the Kremlin may also be concerned that the ICJ will give a ruling in Guyana’s favour in respect of the border controversy, which it would see as undermining President Maduro in particular, by causing him to be perceived as even more ineffectual than he is already.
If it is the case that Moscow has decided to back Mr Maduro, or at least his government, then the move could be a prelude to Venezuelan assertiveness in Guyana’s maritime zone. The Kremlin, which has planes in Venezuela, and has had some soldiers there to service Russian military hardware, has also just signed a pact with Caracas which allows the warships of both nations to visit the other’s ports. Only the Russian ones are of any significance in this instance. Is this latest piece of disinformation the beginning of a campaign of fabrication of the order to which east Ukraine was subject?
As implied earlier it is significant that the target has been the UK, which the Kremlin sees as enfeebled. It has not held forth to the same degree in this connection with the United States, whose oil interests are linked to ExxonMobil. It might be added that China also has an interest in the ExxonMobil development, which would give the Russians pause for thought. If, however, Moscow has only made move one in this game, it will be leaning on Miraflores to make move two. The Russians may have concluded that the only way to keep President Maduro in situ, will be to stir up nationalist sentiment in the country against his weakest ‘opponent’, i.e. Guyana, and go for the easiest of the maritime oil fields. First, however, they have to neutralise Britain.
