Dear Editor,
Stabroek News, in its October 4, 2019 column captioned “APNU+AFC PM candidate has to be discussed”, reported “President David Granger yesterday deflected questions about whether Minister of (Public) Security Khemraj Ramjattan would be the APNU+AFC coalition’s Prime Ministerial (PM) candidate for the 2020 elections”. This is not surprising as Mr Ramjattan’s candidacy presents a series of dilemmas for APNU which is basically the PNC as far as decision making is concerned.
Mr Ramjattan’s candidacy is supported by the AFC but it is now generally accepted by most informed political analysts that this party no longer has the support it received in 2015. The first consideration is whether the AFC would be able to attract enough votes to ensure an APNU+AFC majority. If not, should it be given the PM’s position or, should there be greater attention to the Amerindian vote and therefore consideration given to an Amerindian candidate? With the Liberal and Justice Party headed by a person of Amerindian ancestry, the votes from this segment of the population is now more critical than ever before. Would a PNC member of Amerindian ancestry be a more attractive choice?
The other factor to be considered is Mr Granger’s health. With Ramjattan as the PM, should Mr Granger be unable to complete his term as President, assuming the coalition forms the next government, Mr Ramjattan would become the acting President. If the PNC officials and/or supporters are not happy with such an arrangement, would Ramjattan hand over the Presidency as was done by Mr Sam Hinds during the PPP years? I believe the PNC would want to retain the Presidency and this could be a major issue if Mr Ramjattan is not agreeable. A PNC member would more likely concede the Presidency to a more senior official of the PNC and therefore be a more acceptable PM candidate to the party.
The article quotes President Granger: “A Partnership for National Unity and the Alliance for Change are discussing the Cummingsburg Accord of 2015 and [the PM candidate] is one of the issues that will have to be discussed but I cannot say now who I’ll be running with… I can assure you that the two groups are reviewing the 2015 accord and we hope to come up with a revised accord”. Should Mr Ramjattan be given this position, it is likely that succession to the Presidency will be a key point in the revised Cummings-burg Accord with the AFC having to forego the Presidency should Mr Granger become incapacitated.
Although the AFC seems to be strongly committed to Ramjattan’s candidacy, this could change during the negotiation process. In my view, at this time the AFC needs APNU more than APNU needs the AFC. The last local government elections exposed the electoral weakness of the AFC, hence it is in a poor position to make demands. In politics, self interest is often more important than friendship or principle. The Nagamootoo-Ramjattan fight for the PM position is the most recent example of this. Should APNU leaders decide to play hardball, AFC leaders are likely to renege on Ramjattan’s candidacy in order to retain their own positions. In my view Mr Ramjattan’s candidacy for the PM position under Mr Granger in the upcoming general election is a long shot.
Yours faithfully,
Harry Hergash
