Even the most far-seeing of soothsayers might have been disinclined to risk their reputations on venturing a prediction on the condition in which Guyana would find itself going into the third decade of the twenty first century. History instructs us that, more often than not, there is usually no sustained pattern to the evolution of nations and that while change inevitably comes with the passage of time and ‘accident’ of circumstances, some phenomena, like political uncertainty, persistent poverty and their attendant social consequences, frequently remain constants, making, for poor countries, a nonsense of the saying that to everything, there is a season. In the matter of the fate of (some) nations some things simply remain unaltered by the passage of time. They fashion themselves into bogeys that refuse to go away.
Prior to May 2015 and the intervention of ExxonMobil’s sensational oil discovery disclosure and those others that have followed, our El Dorado might well have been on its way to becoming a pipe dream, the passage of time having seemingly lengthened the odds on us being the recipient of what is now being treated in the sector, globally, as a “world class” oil strike. If all goes well, we are told, Guyana could become the country producing the largest amount of oil per person and that we may well stand on the threshold of a hardly previously envisaged economic takeoff attended by the multi-faceted developmental spinoffs that could follow. Oil and gas have truly elevated Guyana’s ambitions (perhaps dreams might be a more appropriate expression at this stage) to giddying heights, except, of course, for the Shakespearean refrain about ambition being made of much sterner stuff. That, in our context, is simply another way of saying that for all the dreams, for all the fanciful pronouncements and predictions that derive from the various political pronouncements, we can, oil and gas notwithstanding, still end up, at the end of the day, clutching pipe dreams.
That is why, as a nation, we need to quickly get past the still prevailing and altogether understandable sense of euphoria that goes back to May 2015. In our particular circumstances and taken on its own, the fact of oil and gas in abundance means nothing. It is the political will, the substantive wisdom and capabilities that repose in those who rule and the collective national understanding of what, as a people, it will take us to get there, that will take us ‘over the top.’
The reality is that those of us dwelling in this piece of ‘real estate’ called Guyana have been charged by history to begin to either build the foundation of greatness to which the nation has long aspired or else, to fail ourselves and succeeding generations. So that amidst the strong prevailing sense of anticipation that obtains, we must continue to remind ourselves that the greatness of which we dream has to be made (by us) to happen. It is by no means a ‘sure thing.’
The real issue here, the ‘bottom line,’ has little to do either with how much oil there is or the extent of the material resources that will come our way, over time, but whether or not there exists a strong national mindset that offers us the best possible chance of really beginning to build what one might call pillars for posterity. That discourse regarding the existence of a collective national mindset has to begin and it has to be settled in not a great deal of time if Guyana’s transformational journey is to start in earnest.
The issue of just where we are in the matter of revisiting the patently broken-down political narrative that has blocked our arrival at a point of real nationhood, cannot be avoided at this juncture; so that the real question, perhaps the only real question that seriously arises here is whether the sense of opportunity that reposes in what now holds promise of a spectacular developmental breakthrough is matched by a political appreciation of the significance of that opportunity. That, frankly, is a zillion dollar question and it remains decidedly unanswered. More to the point, it has to be answered and pretty quickly if, as a nation, we are to make the best of the opportunity that lies ahead. The absurd incongruity between the sterile and short-sighted nature of our decadent and counterproductive political culture and the huge opportunity that has been afforded us is unquestionably the most important question confronting the nation at this juncture and there is no point in us pretending to the contrary.
No honest assessment of what is likely to derive from the fortune of oil and gas can overlook the reality of the way we live, our condition as a nation. The promise of a likely spectacular economic takeoff, one might think, will create a national mindset that will transcend partisan politics. The prevailing circumstances, as it happens, offer no assurances in that regard. With March 2 now a stone’s throw away, the who governs question will begin to swirl across the nation like a swarm of violently disturbed bees in the period ahead. This time around, an altogether unexpected factor has been thrown into the equation, oil and gas. That adds a new and hugely significant dimension to the cut and thrust of the vote-winning theatrics of the competing political parties in the mere handful of weeks left before polling day.
A key question here has to do with whether we, at this moment, confronted with a convergence of circumstances that create a defining moment in our history, are ready and prepared to confront it. The answer may well boil down to working out whether, in fact, our ‘world class’ oil finds do not compel us to revisit our socio-political script, to seek to rewrite it in a manner to draw a hopefully indelible line through the old ‘axioms’ the have divided us. The fact that we have experienced previous failures in this pursuit should not preclude us from trying again.
History, of course, has taught us, that differences within nations that have their roots in strongly held beliefs, whether these have their origins in legitimate realities or in contrivances designed to divide, are not easy to dispose of. Ours, however, is a circumstance in which we have everything to gain and frankly, little of any real collective importance to lose by rewriting a script that we have long known to be flawed in so many ways. It will require across-the-board attitudinal shifts and the jettisoning of long-held beliefs and it will take time. The critical point here, however, is that we simply have to begin somewhere or else, run the enormous risk of missing an opportunity and declining further as a nation.
There is a tide of global interest in Guyana that is unprecedented and that is driven by what is now a near universal recognition that this small nation, all too infrequently bracketed by the international media in the demeaning category of a ‘banana republic’, now has the potential to ‘make waves,’ quite possibly tidal waves. It is down to us our people and our leaders to confirm or dispel that belief.
