With Nomination Day over, the focus will now intensify on ensuring that the March 2nd 2020 General and Regional Elections are free and fair.
In recent months, three major motifs have weaved together anxieties about the upcoming elections. The first is that the elections are being held before the end – barely – of the full term of the APNU+AFC government. The motion of no confidence of December 21, 2018 when then government MP Charrandass Persaud surprisingly cast his vote in favour of the opposition has deepened divisions between the governing coalition and the opposition PPP/C and their respective constituencies.
If the consequences of the motion of no-confidence had been accepted by the government – as it did initially – then general elections should have been held by March 18 2019 or shortly thereafter. The government decided to respond to what it saw as a betrayal and a plot against it by challenging the validity of the vote on various grounds all the way to the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) where it comprehensively lost the case. The various legal challenges however enabled it to claw back much of the year that it would have lost. It was aided in this by GECOM when the chairperson on September 19, 2019 inexplicably gave the end of February 2020 as the point by which elections would be possible despite the fact that the constitution provides a three-month period for elections on the passage of a motion of no-confidence.
The vote by Mr Persaud and the ensuing challenge to it by APNU+AFC have deepened distrust between the two major political groups and their supporters. A major loser in the whole piece thus far is constitutionalism. Straightforward provisions of the constitution were defied by this government – which provisions its constituents well accepted when they had presented their own motion of no confidence against the PPP/C government in 2014.
Second, the advent of the oil economy have raised the stakes enormously for both sides of the political divide and the country as a whole. With substantial amounts of oil revenue projected to flow into the country from this year and expanding each year thereafter, both of the major political groups discern the opening to extend their control of the government for a lengthy period. Well managed, the oil revenues would enable spending on boosting incomes, improving key infrastructure and modernising the economy.
Ever since the major oil discovery offshore Guyana in May, 2015 both of the major parties have been aware of the opportunity for dominance of the political stage via these revenues and this may have even inspired the motion of no-confidence on December 21, 2018. While it is in the nature of the political parties to espy the political opportunities, the country and its people have been poorly served in this sector particularly by this government. From the inept Production Sharing Agreement with ExxonMobil’s subsidiary in 2016 to the absence of vital pieces of regulatory legislation to the incapacity of key agencies, Guyana has been left exposed by the poor management of this sector. The people of this country are anxious to ensure that those seeking to win the upcoming election can present a persuasive programme for management of the sector and the securing of the interests of the country and its people.
Third, given the high stakes surrounding this elections, the spectre of the country’s sordid history of rigged elections has resurfaced. The country endured rigged elections from 1968 to 1985 under the PNC and concerns are frequently aired and heard about how there are Machiavellian plans afoot to rig or manipulate the elections. These concerns have been heightened by questionable decisions by GECOM on the period for holding elections, its decision to institute house-to-house registration and bizarre announcements such as the withdrawn notification that persons on the preliminary voters list needed to visit a registration centre to confirm their identity.
It is important to note that electoral reforms that were instituted in 1990 and onwards make it very difficult for the rigging of elections in any significant way. Counting at the place of poll is one of the key safeguards for fair elections and the count that should be posted up outside the roughly 2,000 polling stations represents the final tally. These tallies are then transmitted to GECOM only for tabulation.
While rigging would be difficult, there are other areas that bear watching considering how close the last election was in 2015 and how close it is likely to be this year. A stratagem that has been increasingly employed around the world is voter suppression. It covers a variety of methods. In the case of the final voters list here it could take the form of striking names off the list or reassigning names to other voting divisions without the voter being aware. Vigilance is therefore needed. In the remaining days for the scrutiny of the Revised Voter’s List, voters should double check that their names are present on the list and in the division where they are expected to vote.
Between now and polling day on March 2nd stakeholders should move to ensure arrangements for each polling station to be manned by professional polling day staff and by scrutineers from as many parties as possible. The presence of international observers is also very welcome. GECOM has to work in tandem with the Guyana Police Force to ensure that there is no intimidation of voters on polling day and that no polling station is overrun by persons seeking to cause trouble.
As oil revenues beckon, good and accountable governance is what is required. Free and fair elections is a critical first step.
