One can envisage the justices of the CCJ rolling their eyes around in exasperation when the latest frivolous electoral appeal from Guyana lands on their bench. After all, they have ruled on this matter already. Since it must be apparent to even the most thick-skinned members of the de facto government that the action brought by Ms Misenga Jones is going nowhere, then what is this all about?
One can only conclude that it is about delaying a declaration of results. What is not so clear is why the de facto President and his clique need this delay now, if the Gecom Chair will sooner or later declare a result based on the recount in any case. They have so far had to abandon plans to illegally swear in Mr David Granger on the basis of Mr Clairmont Mingo’s fabricated figures and Mr Keith Lowenfield’s make-believe reports, not forgetting failing to have the courts rule in their favour.
In order to give themselves more breathing space following the damming reviews from all the overseas observers to the March 2nd election, as well as from local heads of mission and by extension their superiors in their home countries, those entrenched in State House have tried to change the ‘international narrative’, particularly in the United States, with the hiring of an expensive lobby firm. It has not helped them. The ‘narrative’ remains unchanged.
That has not prevented them from treating the international community as if its members lack any intellectual capacity whatsoever. There was de facto Minister of Foreign Affairs Karen Cummings with AG Basil Williams in tow on Tuesday, embarrassing the country in front of the Permanent Council of the OAS. They had been preceded by a letter written by the former which utterly misrepresented the ruling of the CCJ, claiming it had invalidated the recount votes. What universe are they living in if they think that high-level representatives to the OAS both cannot read and cannot comprehend? One can only think that those who rule in Georgetown really don’t regard sanctions as a much of a problem for this country.
That impression is reinforced by Prime Minister Moses Nagamootoo’s column this week in the state paper where he said “The ‘Big Stick’ will not work; it never did…” He went on to end with the statement, “This sentence of sanctions will also pass.”
Despite the fact that the caretaker government has made no headway in changing the international climate, or in manipulating circumstances so that an illegal swearing-in is either possible, or if accomplished, is recognised, there was Mr Harmon on Wednesday telling the public that Gecom can only make a declaration on the basis of “valid votes”, i.e., not the recount. And then he revealed the possible purpose of the delay. The state newspaper quoted him as saying: “The APNU+AFC Coalition, in the national interest, and with a view to maintaining stability and peace, remains open to dialogue with other political parties and stakeholders on the way forward for our country. The APNU+AFC Coalition is prepared to act responsibly to bring a resolution to the ongoing political situation.”
Now whether this is just a ruse in order to cover themselves if they do go the route of more extreme measures so they then can claim that the other political parties refused to negotiate, or whether they are serious, presumably only time will tell. If they are serious, then what exactly do they have in mind? In this connection there was the Guyana Chronicle a few days ago reporting on a mysterious group which has created the ‘Guyana Renewal Project’ which proposes a period of shared governance to allow for constitutional reform.
Since the state newspaper is sometimes used as a political pool by whoever is in office into which a pebble can be dropped to see if it causes ripples, it may be that this ‘story’ had been deliberately placed. It is significant, for example, that no one either locally or in the diaspora was named in connection with the group. However, in an echo of Mr Harmon, it was reported that the objective was to spark dialogue and find a solution to ‘Guyana’s current political crisis.’ Against this, however, it has to be remembered that the Chronicle is under the direct control of Prime Minister Nagamootoo, so it could conceivably be one of his flights of fancy.
In fairness, however, in his column ‘My Turn’ he too reflects Mr Harmon’s new line, writing, “Today, we have returned to the past, or what V.S. Naipaul described as “the bend in the river”. The most difficult political challenges are ahead. For this, Guyana needs engagement, not isolation: Not sanctions. The leaders have to come to the table and work out a post-election détente. The time for this is now!”
Whatever the status of the enigmatic group, the proposals as reported are quite complicated. Even if they are to be taken seriously, any temporary arrangements as conceived by them, or by Mr Harmon and his party, or by anyone else, would first require Parliament to be convened if they are to come within the ambit of the Constitution. And for the National Assembly to meet there would have to be a declaration of results in the first instance, and the swearing in of a president in the second. And that is exactly what the de facto President and APNU+AFC are trying so hard to avoid.
Where the group’s proposals are concerned, why convene Parliament just to put in place temporary arrangements under which the Constitution would be changed? There is already a Standing Parliamentary Committee on Constitutional Reform, which could set to work straight away.
Be that as it may, if Mr Harmon’s plan is to negotiate with the opposition, exactly what is it he is seeking to negotiate? The parliamentary conundrum is perhaps what prompted Mr Vincent Alexander at an earlier stage to muse about no declaration, a new voters’ list and a new election. It is not a suggestion which will go anywhere, because firstly, the Gecom Chair has indicated there will be a declaration based on the recount, and secondly, leaving Mr Granger in place while a new voters’ list is drawn up will be unacceptable both to the opposition and the new parties, not to mention the international community. Furthermore, no one except APNU+AFC will justify going for a new election and bypassing the current one, which all observers, both local and foreign, have deemed free and fair.
So the de facto government is back to square one. It is in the same position it has been in for the last few months. It either accepts a declaration based on the recount, and then goes for an election petition (true to form, the Chronicle has already carried a piece on why election petitions are not a favoured route for political parties), or it holds onto power by force. If the latter, then the sanctions so lightly dismissed by Mr Nagamootoo come into play. Significantly, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has already announced the withdrawal of visas for those undermining democracy in this country, and has indicated that this could be extended to their families.
A withdrawal of visas for senior GDF officers as well as, possibly, for some in the police force is likely to follow anything that has the patina of a formal coup, and would undoubtedly extend to family members as well. Considering that so many Guyanese have relatives in the US, it would be a severe blow. While the officers themselves might be prepared to tolerate it, they would come under great pressure from their families. Their lack of enthusiasm for any form of recklessness, in consequence, may not be reassuring for the clique circulating in and around State House.
The difficulty for the de facto President is that since so much time has passed, he has a great deal of face to lose. As such, he will not want to be seen as having been humiliated; if he thinks he has been it will just make him more obdurate. There is little that can be done about this, since it is of his own creation, although it can be impressed upon the opposition that there should be no triumphalism and that anything coming out of Freedom House should be very carefully worded. In the end, however, this is not about Mr Granger’s loss of face; it is about the nation’s future.
