This week the White House reported more Covid-19 infections than 12 entire countries and several European nations were imposing emergency measures to dampen the impact of a second wave of the pandemic. With months of uncertainty ahead public health experts have sifted reams of data to help them avoid earlier mistakes. As they have done so, it has become clear that good governance can slow and contain the progress of the virus. Germany’s death rate, for instance, is 11.5 deaths per 100,000 citizens; in neighbouring Belgium that rate is 87. Similarly discrepancies are evident in Canadian and Italian promises. The crucial difference seems to be not the pre-emptive measures themselves, nor the strength of the national economy or healthcare systems, but the seriousness of the government’s approach, and the clarity and consistency of its communications.
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, a scientist by training, has displayed a firm grasp of the complexities from the start. As a result, the German public has felt well-informed and has displayed overwhelming support (85-90 percent) for government advice and instructions on masking and social distancing. The contrast with authoritarian states or even with democracies that have lower levels of public trust, could not be greater. Sweden, which avoided lockdowns and gave its citizens much greater social latitude, has experienced more infections than its neighbours, but it has still contained the spread of the virus better than countries which shared less information and changed their warnings and protocols.
In countries with less competent leaders, misinformation has thrived. A few months ago, presidents Trump and Bolsonaro were both hawking hydroxychloroquine as a potential miracle cure. Thankfully, after some initial credulity, their empty promises were largely ignored. Not long afterwards, daily briefings on the pandemic were sunk by Trump’s rambling monologues, until they were cancelled. Since then, Trump and his associates have continued to flout CDC guidance on masks and social distancing, and have implicitly encouraged their followers to do the same. As a result a raft of baseless theories and unsubstantiated cures have appeared in both broadcast and social media, to the point at which the World Health Organization has warned of an “infodemic” which threatens science-based public health initiatives. Trump’s erratic and irresponsible behaviour since his Covid diagnosis will only exacerbate this trend.
With an infected and untrustworthy president promising further miracle cures, Americans have begun to lose faith in their public health institutions. A new poll conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation has found that even if a vaccine were made available before the election, less than half of the population would take it because of their concern that it had been rushed through due to political pressure. Sadly this pattern is likely to be repeated elsewhere, unless other governments handle the second wave of infections with much greater transparency. While any country’s response is necessarily constrained by its resources, the last seven months have shown that governance, and communications that are clear and encourage public trust can make a crucial difference to what is about to happen as the second wave of Covid-19 begins to spread.
