Dear Editor,
When the sums are done, the COVID-19 pandemic would reveal its devastating impact on both the non-oil economy and the society as a whole. The tally will most likely account for things that are directly measurable and exert an immediate impact upon real GDP, such as the various cash grants by the central government, supply bottlenecks, the cost of lockdowns, fall in real consumption and investment spending. These are all marketable transactions, transactions that have price – and thus a value – attached to them. There are other “transactions” that are not easily measurable and do not have a price and, therefore, are not counted as part of GDP. With respect to the current pandemic, these include things such as educational setbacks, social discontent, the spread of disinformation by the opposition (which has reached the level of a contagion), mental health issues, rising fatalities, long-term health problems, food insecurity, and falling life expectancy. The latter occurs if the mean age of all those who died is lower than current life expectancy, which was 69.9 years in 2018 (data for 2019 to 2021 do not exist). These non-market ills do not show up in GDP but are still central to economic growth, prosperity and national well-being. Based on my reading of the daily COVID-19 articles in Stabroek News, deaths numbered 1,006 during the approximately twenty-two months from March 2020 to 5 December 2021. The first COVID-19 death happened on 11 March 2021, and I thank the Editor of SN for this information. I assume that all of these deaths were due to COVID-19, which may not necessarily be the case (misdiagnosis exists galore in Guyana).
To simplify the argument without much loss of substance, assume that these deaths took place during the two-years from January 2020 to December 2021. Average deaths during the non-COVID-19 years from 2013 to 2017 was 5,067 per year; data for later years are not available. This would mean that an estimated 10,134 deaths occurred over the two-year period 2020-2021. The COVID-19 fatality of 1,006 mean that deaths so far in the pandemic were 9.93 percent above the average number of deaths during the non-COVID-19 years. A tentative guess is that deaths attributable to COVID-19 is about 5 percent above the norm from 2013-2017. These excess deaths are the non-measured price exacted by COVID-19, and they collectively constitute a “tax” on GDP and economic growth. One way to gauge the burden of the tax is to estimate the value of loss output due to those whose deaths have been attributable to the current pandemic. Three sets of data are needed for such a calculation: average age of those who died, life expectancy, and per capita GDP. Data on the latter two is readily available. Despite the large number of deaths that will be attributable to COVD-19, its “death blow” will not match that of the so-called Spanish flu (H1N1 virus) of 1918-1919. The latter killed an estimated 12,000 persons, mostly Indians, including my great Aja; Indians were also more susceptible to malaria. I think the number of deaths is overestimated, but it pushed the crude death rate to 41 per 1,000 during 1918-19 compared to around 29 from 1916-17. COVID-19 will not be so devastating, but its hard-hitting punches will be felt into the distant future. It would be helpful if the authorities would make available data on the ethnicity and place of residence (region) of those who were taken away by the current pandemic.
Sincerely,
Ramesh Gampat
