Dear Editor,
The war in Ukraine has now arrived in Guyana. In days ahead, I believe that more of its effects and the surrounding visions generated will visit this land, and have several impacts on it. They are all negative for the Guyanese people, and I start with the immediate: prices. In times of war, commodity prices soar, with oil leading the pack, since its needs and uses are more in the present. The fallouts come quickly, and already Guyanese are hearing rumblings of what is in store. It is what will come at the pump and with power. With oil futures at US$140 a barrel, and threatening to burst out stronger, the longer and tenser this war (or, according to the UN, conflict) rages, the greater the pressures on prices.
Already cash-strapped Guyanese-ordinary, unconnected and unfavoured citizens live in a financial straitjacket. Life is reduced to a daily struggle, with eating and spending having to be curtailed by poor Guyanese, since they lack the means to partake to the fullest, or anywhere near such, in basics. When gas prices go up, transportation cost is the first victim, which means a slew of areas/businesses have to pay more to get their activities completed. From baker to market vendor to food seller to shopkeeper, to name a few, all are hit.
And when the GPL is considering its energy (light bill) pricing levels, then Guyanese have to brace themselves for the worst. As I see it, GPL has no choice; not with oil at the levels reached currently. To put in the simplest terms, when light bill goes up, everything and everyone is affected sharply. Everything goes up in the traditional passing on of the additions to trapped and helpless consumers. We are in for it, with this war in Ukraine now inside our pockets and homes. It is going to be more than a hard pinch; more like many deep piercings. Our oil fund should benefit from those steep price spirals; but, on the other hand, this means that political oil mercenaries have more to work with under the banner of withdrawals for pet projects that benefit leaders and their insiders the most. Guyanese lose everywhere they turn, while rulers get to dance some more on their grievous circumstances intensifying all the time.
On another note, as a Guyanese I cannot help being concerned at what could be possibly going on in the minds of Senor Maduro and company, as they closely watch developments in Ukraine. Think-ing like an ambitious and covetous Venezuelan leader, the weighing of the situation would indicate that the worst that is inflicted are sanctions. For sure, they are powerful, comprehensive, and devastating. As a leader I could be tempted to get ideas. Though I acknowledge signals of a possible thawing in US-Venezuela relations, there must be balancing against what Venezuelan leaders call their sacred national patrimony. As Guyana readies to present its memo of merits to the ICJ, a lovely turn of phrase that is sure to gain domestic mileage, Venezuela’s longstanding position is well known here: the only development that matters is that Vene-zuela won, meaning, that Guyana lost. Only that would find favor, be acceptable. So, we would still have the Guyana-Venezuela controversy hanging over our heads, we the smaller party, we a terribly divided polity.
Sincerely,
GHK Lall
