The rising number of new cases suggests Guyana may be experiencing a new Covid-19 wave

Dear Editor,

The three graphs below show the numbers for tests, vaccinations, new cases, patients in the ICU, and deaths for the 12 weeks after the March 14 announcement rescinding COVID-19 protections and making them voluntary, for the most part.

The graphs are basically self-explanatory and little explanation is needed but clarification is in order.  Of greatest note in the first graph—tests and vaccinations, however, is the precipitous drop in vaccinations immediately after the announcement on March 14 from 9,875 to 6355 and the continued downward trend. Of note too is May 23.  The Ministry of Health (MOH) did not publicly publish any vaccination numbers for media dissemination for two weeks (May 13 – May 27), hence, the weeks of May 23 and May 30 skewed numbers.

The second graph new cases, persons in ICU, and deaths respectively, confirms the positive correlation between testing and new cases (when synchronized with the first graph).  Also of note is the rising number of new cases beginning on April 25 as BA.2, and possibly BA.2.12.1 began to take hold. The third graph – showing the daily averages after protections were rescinded shows that over the three month period MOH averaged 899 tests per day.  And just as noteworthy are the vaccination numbers (an average of 351 jabs per day) and most notably those for adolescents: 9 and 10, respectively, for 1st and 2nd doses, per day. Unfortunately, and as expected, the death toll is beginning to rise with 10 deaths in the last three weeks (second graph).

And, of greatest concern, of course, is the recently announced vaccines (from a generous Spain) for the 5-11 year olds, scheduled to begin on June 11, and the prospects of their vaccination uptake given the rather low uptake shown in the third graph above for their kin, adolescents.  Both 5-11 and 12-17 year olds need parental permission to be vaccinated so it is noteworthy that the Honourable Minister of Health, Dr. Frank Anthony, is quoted in the media as saying: “I think because this is a relatively new category of persons, we won’t have any challenges with uptake.”

Sincerely,

Ellis Dee