In 72 hours, world leaders or their representatives, heads of international non-governmental organisations, climate activists and others will come together for the UN Climate Conference (CoP27) at the Sharm el-Sheikh International Convention Centre, in the Arab Republic of Egypt. Over a period of 12 days – it ends on November 18 – they will, hopefully, make stronger commitments and pledges than they have made in the past, and which they intend to implement in a timely fashion. In the run-up to this universally important meeting, several pertinent reports were published over the past week, reminding and updating the world about its current perilous state.
In a report titled “The Coldest Year Of The Rest Of Their Lives”, which it released on October 25, UNICEF predicted that by 2050, virtually every child on earth will be grappling with frequent heatwaves regardless of whether the world achieves the very elusive climate targets that will once again be addressed next week. Since from all indications this is a definite no, then our next hope is that global temperature does not rise above 2 degrees Celsius. If this does occur, the UNICEF report estimated, the effects on children’s lives will be devastating. It foresees increases in health problems including chronic respiratory conditions, asthma, and cardiovascular diseases; impacts on safety, nutrition, education, access to water and future livelihoods.
To forestall these issues, the report stated, governments should act now by adapting social services, preparing children to live in a climate-changed world and prioritising them in climate financing. Of course, the best action would be an impetus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adhering firmly to the Paris Agreement made at the CoP21 to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, it has been proven that the only simple thing about the Paris Agreement is how it sounds.
Furthermore, the UN Emissions Gap Study report, released on October 27, paints a gloomy picture. The scientists who prepared the study do not see a “credible pathway” to keeping global temperature below 1.5°C by the next seven years. What they have realised from current analysis is that the actions being taken at present would only see a drop in emissions of less than 1% when in fact, a reduction of 45% is necessary to keep the temperature under 1.5°C.
A third report, compiled by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), warned on October 26 that atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases warming our planet – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – reached new record highs last year. Though WMO said it could not accurately pinpoint the exact reason for the extraordinary increase, it would be safe to say that the business-as-usual approach by most countries (ours included) to these dire times had something to do with it.
Of course reference is being made here to local politicians’ inability to see the forest for the trees, or at least pretend that they can’t, with regard to oil exploitation. The signs are already there that exploiting this resource will not redound to the benefit of the country and its people at large, but will inevitably do more harm than good.
The State of Climate Action, published by the World Resources Institute (WRI) on October 26, assessed 40 indicators of progress as set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, necessary to limit warming to 1.5°C. It found that none are on track for a 2030 target date. “Six are heading in the right direction at a promising but insufficient speed, while 21 are also trending in the right direction but well below the required pace. Five indicators are trending in the wrong direction entirely, while the data are insufficient to evaluate the final eight indicators,” the WRI report said.
Much like the intransigence that saw the US pullout of the Paris Agreement under the Trump Administration, the above presents a clear indication of the kind of inaction that will prove catastrophic in the near future. In fact, when one considers the extreme weather conditions of the recent past and present, it is possible that the future is already here.
Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme Inger Andersen believes the world is now at a point where only very drastic transformation will make a difference. She posited that climate change has to become an integral part of all our lives so that it is up front and centre in classrooms, boardrooms, voting booths and at dinner tables.
The time for sitting back and waiting for the large polluters to act has long gone. The issue is one that has to be addressed by governments, businesses and individuals. Yes we can blame the large industrialised countries for the world’s plight, but at this point that doesn’t help. Droughts, floods, hurricanes and the like do not single out the polluting countries and only wreak havoc there; the entire world feels it. The effort, therefore, has to be universal. To borrow from poet extraordinaire Martin Carter: “all are involved, all are consumed”.
