So here we are at the start of a new year, although just how new it will be for most of us remains to be seen. The war in Ukraine will continue to rage on for an indeterminate length of time bringing in its wake the same harmful consequences that the world – never mind the Ukrainians – have had to endure this year. The effects of climate change are likely to intensify with more droughts, hurricanes, floods and extremes of temperature in evidence. The global economy is not going to recover in the next twelve months, while Covid will linger on, although hopefully without any new variants making their appearance to present us with further health challenges. If the global situation hardly gives cause for optimism, here in Guyana we seem to be bucking the trend. Or are we? Oil has certainly given us a growth rate other nations would die for and a per capita GDP to match, so with all this money sloshing around we are forging ahead with plans to refashion our coastal world. Among other things we have a gas to shore project, a four-lane Embankment road, additional lanes on the ECD road between Belfield and Orange Nassau and an extension of that road to Mahaica. A press release has informed us that 48 bridges will be constructed in the course of this, along with 22 culverts and another bridge across the Hope Canal which channels water from the Conservancy. And then there is the building of the new Demerara Harbour Bridge. Our coastlands will never look the same again.
All this will be good news for the foreigners and entrepreneurs associated with the oil industry and its various offshoots, but how much will it do for those outside this charmed circle, especially if they live in poverty? And what about Indigenous inhabitants in the hinterland? How much will it do for them? Projects to attack poverty anywhere in the country are not much in evidence, although the government has been busy with periodic handouts for some groups, which will not address the underlying problems. Will that change in this new year? Those whom fortune has so far passed by wait to see.
There is something else which given the administration’s past form one does not expect to change in 2023, and that is its secretiveness. The East Coast road expansion, for example, involves a US$192 million loan from the Exim Bank of China, but the press release did not disclose the terms. And as for the Demerara bridge, two days ago Minister of Finance Ashni Singh announced the electronic signing of a loan agreement with the Bank of China for US$172 million. This was a little puzzling considering that in May last year the government signed a US$260 million contract for the bridge with three Chinese companies on the basis of a Design, Finance and Build model. Why the deal with the Bank of China was necessary is not clear, never mind where the remainder of the money will come from, and one would have to be an unmitigated optimist to believe that the government has it in mind to enlighten the public on the subject in 2023. But then that has been this ruling party’s constant failing: a lack of transparency. It is a product of a limited view of democracy, i.e. the belief that the people get to decide who should be in office, but after that whoever wins should have total power. It does not matter, it seems, if the margin of success is only one seat, as is the case presently; the winner has the right to make all the decisions and control, or if possible even eliminate, the independent spaces in society. Certainly non-aligned critics, no matter how well-meaning or well informed are subjected to a torrent of vituperation, sometimes from several members of government at the same time, particularly if they are dealing with oil and related matters. Can we anticipate a more civilised approach to those who disagree with the government or hold alternative views this year? One shouldn’t hold one’s breath. Inevitably this has been accompanied by an absence of consultation with any entities outside the inner sanctum of central government; an avoidance of setting up autonomous monitoring agencies, or if they exist, emasculating them; and a dislike of devolution, in particular to local authorities, although the framework for such devolution exists even under the provisions of the current Constitution. Its particular distaste for Georgetown’s City Council has recently caused it to bring charges against Mayor Ubraj Narine as well as an MP, charges which infringe on our constitutional right to freedom of expression. Will the PPP/C attitude to all this change in 2023? The prognostications are not good.
And where the Indigenous people in the interior are concerned, will the next twelve months do anything to improve their lot? Will the government listen to their concerns and solicit their opinions on matters that affect them? Its approach to the carbon credits scheme suggests not. And then there is the matter of mining and the Indigenous villages. Will the government at last do something about the environmental catastrophe visited by miners illegally on the titled lands of Chinese Landing? They have not even moved so far to prevent the intimidation of members of that community. Will the government continue to support miners against Indigenous people no matter what the circumstances? And can we expect a new Amerindian Act before 2024? In one probably minor respect the political landscape will change this year, in so far as the AFC has now delinked itself from APNU, although the two parties will work in concert in Parliament and the allocation of seats will remain the same. In November the AFC said it wanted to work on rebuilding its base, although given all that has happened since 2015 one feels their expectations should be low. They undoubtedly will not be given any quarter by the PPP/C, which will take measures to ensure their constituencies are insulated from any overtures by the AFC.
And then there is the matter of the main opposition party which hardly distinguished itself last year. It dissipated its energies in election-related court cases, which one suspects that even the more discerning of its constituents do not have much time for. Unless it finally comes to terms with the reality that it lost the 2020 election and the PPP/C is legitimately in power it will spend 2023 as it did 2022 tilting at windmills. This is not to say that it does not have some eminently justifiable complaints about the government’s conduct, it is just to say that even where that is the case the response has not always been appropriate in addition to which it is sometimes not compelling. Mr Norton’s previous street-action reputation has proved an impediment to him developing any gravitas in the public eye, something he has reinforced with a display of lack of courtesy on occasion, and that perception is likely to continue to tell against him in the current year.
The last election aside, Mr Norton has spent his energies on accusing the government of discrimination against Africans. It is not that this discrimination does not exist in some places or in relation to contracts, for instance, it is just that his party has not systematically accumulated detailed evidence to put before the public, evidence which distinguishes too what can be laid at the door of central government and what occurs at a much lower unofficial level. The latter might theoretically occur in the case of handouts, for example. Can we expect a more effective opposition this year? So far it does not look as if that can be guaranteed. One thing there is ample evidence for is the refusal of the government in general and President Irfaan Ali in particular to deal with the opposition, even where the Constitution requires it. In Parliament it avoids sending Bills to Select Committee, one of the mechanisms for inclusiveness, and after using its majority to change the quorum requirements of the Public Accounts Committee so it cannot meet without a PPP/C member present, that committee has hardly met since. Will the PAC meet any time soon in 2023? We wait to see. And will the government start recognising the importance of Select Committees? That too is by no means certain.
One thing it will cheerfully do in 2023 is arrange meetings about reform of the Constitution. This has more importance for the opposition than it does for the government, but nothing has been heard from the former on the subject, despite the fact the whole exercise is in their interest. It is true they do not have the talent in the party they used to have, but there are many resources even outside APNU they can call upon for possible approaches. What they cannot afford is to be scrambling to reply to the PPP/C at the last minute; they need to have developed a rational draft taking into account public inputs, as well as one which can be defended, all of which takes time. They should not waste this year. The President’s mantra is ‘One Guyana’, a slogan which he tosses about with great abandon, even if he won’t meet the Leader of the Opposition. He will meet African residents of NDCs, but not those they have voted into office. There is every reason to suppose he will not change his style this year, just as there is every reason to suppose he will get no more traction from this method than previous PPP governments did in the past.
And finally, after more than two-and-a-half years of procrastinating will President Ali call in the Leader of the Opposition in 2023 with a view to appointing a Chancellor and Chief Justice?
