MADRID (Reuters) – Spain could have its first far-right participation in government since the days of Francisco Franco after surveys taken in the final week of campaigning showed the centre-right People’s Party (PP) and the anti-Muslim, anti-feminist Vox winning enough seats in Sunday’s election to form a coalition.
A PP/Vox government would represent a significant ideological shift in Spain after nearly four years under a left-wing coalition of the Socialists (PSOE) with the far-left Unidas Podemos.
PP was set to win 150 seats, while Vox had 31 seats, enough for a majority in the 350-seat parliament, according to a GAD3 voter survey released after polls closed.
A survey by Sigma Dos was less conclusive, predicting 145-150 seats for PP and 24-27 seats for Vox, which could mean the two parties would fall short at the lower range of its poll.
In the last election in November 2019, Vox won 52 seats. If the voter surveys are correct, it could receive as little as half that number in this election.
The Socialists were set to win 112 seats, according to GAD3, and 113-118 seats according to Sigma Dos, while the far-left platform led by Labour Minister Yolanda Diaz had either 27 seats or 28-31 seats.
GAD3 said its poll surveyed 10,000 people and closed on July 22. The Sigma Dos survey of 17,000 people closed on Sunday.
The voter surveys are not exit polls and have in previous years given indications of potential winners that turned out to be incorrect.
The election took place in the summer holidays and amid intense heat for much of the country. Many Spaniards were following results from the beach.
Reacting to the news, Ignacio Garriga, Vox’s secretary general, urged caution, saying: “Let’s wait until an hour and a bit before we know the final results.”
Cuca Gamarra, the PP’s spokesperson, said: “Spaniards have been consulted on who we want to be our next president and it seems that the clear majority has chosen Alberto Nuñez Feijoo.”
With 40% of votes counted, the PSOE led with 33% of the vote versus 31% for the PP. Early vote counting in Spain comes mainly from smaller towns and does not necessarily reflect the final outcome.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the election early after the left took a drubbing in local elections in May, but his gamble to wrong-foot his opponents could backfire if the surveys are correct.
Whether the PP and Vox do unite to form Spain’s second-ever coalition government will depend on negotiations between the parties in coming days, weeks or even months.
While PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo has said he would prefer to govern alone, PP and Vox have already teamed up to govern in dozens of regions and cities since local elections in May.
Vox leader Santiago Abascal has said he is open to “creating an alternative” to Sanchez’s left-wing coalition government.
As Sanchez went to vote in Madrid he was greeted by one small group of people shouting “liar” and a similar-sized group shouting “prime minister”, TVE footage showed. He told reporters he had “good feelings” about the election outcome.
The prime minister’s minority government is currently in coalition with far-left Unidas Podemos that is running in Sunday’s election under the Sumar platform.
Feijoo said he hoped Spain could begin a “new era”.
Abascal said “the important thing today is whether Spain changes course” and thanked voters for “interrupting their break” to cast their ballots, while Sumar leader Yolanda Diaz said “rights are at stake” and urged people to vote in what were “likely the most important elections” for her generation.
A PP-led government is not expected to significantly shift Spain’s economic or foreign policies, though it could water down the previous government’s green agenda. Under the Socialists, Spain has been one of the biggest champions in the European Union of policies to slow climate change.
The PP has promised to streamline the tax system, cut taxes for lower-income earners, scrap a recently created wealth tax, boost industry and reduce value-added tax on meat and fish.
Vox would join a growing number of far-right parties entering government in Europe. The far-right governs alone in Hungary and in coalition with the centre-right in Italy and Finland.
Vox was founded in 2013 but grew in popularity in response to the handling by the PP of the 2017 failed attempt by Catalan nationalists to force independence from Spain.
Vox proposes the expulsion of illegal migrants and a naval blockade to stop them arriving, and the closure of radical mosques, while supporting immigration meeting Spain’s labour market needs and from nationalities sharing language or culture.
It has also vowed to repeal progressive laws on transgender rights, abortion and animal rights, along with climate protections promoted by Sanchez.
Abascal has said Vox doesn’t have a position on Spain’s former dictator Franco, who ruled until his death in 1975 after winning a bloody civil war in 1939. But Abascal has also said that Sanchez’s government was the worst in 80 years, a period that includes Franco’s regime.
Voter turnout stood at around 40.5% at 2 p.m. (1200 GMT), according to the Interior Ministry, up from 37.9% recorded at the same time during the last election in November 2019.
Postal voting set an all-time record of 2.47 million as people cast their ballots from holiday locations.
