The cover story of the most recent issue of The Economist magazine, 18th November, is titled “The World Ahead 2024”, and provides an extensive 90-page guide to the coming year. The lead article, “Donald Trump poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024” focuses on the possibility of the former president winning the election – the bookmakers would concede by now, barring a miracle, that he is the shoo-in for the Republican nomination – on the 5th November, and his probable actions upon his return to the Oval Office.
A publication of the stature of The Economist, which was founded in 1843, is not prone to making wild pronouncements. The weekly British magazine which focuses on politics, current affairs, international business and technology is an industry leader and standard bearer for reporting, fact checking and copy editing. When it sounds a global five-alarm fire warning of this magnitude, one should sit up and take notice, regardless of wherever one resides, since, should Trump regain office, every living soul will be affected in one way or another.
The general prevailing thoughts over the last three years since Biden defeated Trump in the 2020 elections, the insurrection – that is what took place – on the 6th January, 2021, and the four criminal indictments filed against the former president has been that the combination of these factors would be more than enough to quell Trump’s political career. Trump, instead, continues to demonstrate the resilient qualities of an Arctic fox, the toughest animal surviving in extreme temperatures, (as low as – 58 C, along with 50 to 60 mph winds), converting all challenges into opportunities to gain political mileage, and, most importantly, raise funds.
Every occasion which appears to leave Trump cornered, he has somehow managed to wiggle out unscathed, whilst some of his colleagues bear the brunt of responsibility. Images of Trump being waylaid by the court system can safely be put to rest for now, as there is no equal to his manipulation of the legal system, and one can be rest assured that none of the pending cases will be concluded – appeals inclusive – by the 5th November.
Any chance of Trump returning to the seat of power was summarily dismissed when President Joe Biden was inaugurated on 20th January, 2021, and Trump, being the sore loser who has to this day steadfastly refused to concede defeat to Biden, was conspicuous by his absence.
However, Trump’s MAGA base, who have often been dismissed as a flock of followers searching for something to cling to, still retains the vast majority of his diehard loyalists. In 2016, American political reporter and journalist, Salena Zito penned the subtle observation, “The press takes him literally, but not seriously. His supporters take him seriously, but not literally.” The press focuses on Trump’s pathological lying whilst Trump’s “ cult members”- according to Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer – are drinking the Kool Aid and believing the sales pitches that ‘deep state is after me because I am preventing them from getting to you’, and ‘these charges against me are the weaponisation of the Justice Department by the Democrats because they can’t beat me in an election’. Ever the showman and salesman, Trump has mastered the art of telling people, desperate people, exactly what they wish to hear, a message of hope. Whether it is true or not is of little or no bearing to his supporters, as a herd mentality seemingly prevails at his never ending rallies.
Trump’s stunning numbers over his fellow Republicans at the candidate polls long before the Republican Nomination Convention scheduled for July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin – a key swing state in the presidential election – suggests that despite his mounting legal woes in the court room and the accompanying legal bills, he will most likely be the Republican presidential candidate. While elections are often centred around policy issues – abortion, the Mexican wall – and the economy – inflation, jobs, housing – Trump will most likely direct his oratory to the personal side of things – Biden’s age and Trump’s achievements, both imaginary and real.
Bearing in mind Trump’s actions in office during his first term – his wild ploys often intercepted by Oval Office staff loyal to the country – culminating in multiple challenges to the election results and eventually stirring the pot to ignite the storming of the Capitol, the editors of the Economist are wary of his return.
“A second Trump term would be watershed in a way the first was not. Victory would confirm his most destructive instincts about power. His plans would encounter less resistance. And because America will have voted him in whilst knowing the worst, its moral authority would decline,” the editors stated. The Economist is clearly issuing a warning that it is time to take the threat of Trump very seriously, especially Americans who care about the future.
The Economist duly notes that how much he has advanced rhetorically and substantively since his first term and openly stating what his intentions are the second time around. The magazine’s observations serve to further endorse recent reports by the Washington Post and the New York Times of Trump’s deepening radicalization and use of extreme rhetoric associated with authoritarian leaders of the past. He has declared, among several other game-changing actions that he will withdraw from NATO and the Paris Climate Agreement (again), and will weaponise the Justice Department against his enemies, both real and perceived, including individuals who served in his previous White House Administration. In a recent interview on Good Morning Britain, Cohen stated that he would leave America if Trump were re-elected since he feared for his family’s and his own safety. Cohen, who knows and understands Trump’s modus operandi very well, takes his apparent volatile spewing very seriously and has been clamouring for the past three years for America to pay attention to the runaway train that Trump will be if returned to power.
Trump, the genie, is out of the bottle and he isn’t going back in. In his two previous runs for the White House, he lost the popular vote but thanks to America’s Founding Fathers’ electoral college system, emerged the winner in the latter instance. Should the savvy campaigner emerge victorious in the essential swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin his return to the Oval Office is a real probability. As a nation we are paying close attention to the result of the 2024 US Presidential elections and the impact it will have on our delicate border issue. One never knows which side of the bed Trump will wake up on and his apparent knee jerk approach to foreign policy should be our concern.
Less than a year from today, the looming threat of Donald Trump on world affairs will be determined by American voters. The world is anxiously watching.
