Dear Editor,
I cannot disagree with those who see Argyle as a triumph of diplomacy. It elicited important commitments from Maduro but let’s face it: Argyle is a band aid on a scar and a huge win for Maduro. Venezuela’s spurious claim to Essequibo will never be settled: not by diplomacy, not by litigation, not by arbitration and certainly not by force. Reigniting the issue at this time and in that manner was a political stunt by Maduro and the hastily arranged meeting in St Vincent was a Christmas gift from Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves. It gave him an easy way out of a box he had locked himself in and an argument for his re-election in 2024.
Lest we forget, the border dispute was settled 124 years ago. Venezuela is legally bound by that decision and honoured it for 60 years. A controversy arose in 1962 when Venezuela latched on to an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory and declared the 1899 Award null and void. Legally, Venezuela cannot unilaterally nullify the Treaty of Washington (1897) and/or the 1899 Arbitral Award. The scope, intention and language of the Geneva Agreement (1966) are unambiguous. It outlined steps “to resolve the present controversy”…”which has arisen as the result of the Venezuelan contention that the Arbitral Award of 1899 about the frontier between British Guiana and Venezuela is null and void.” It gave Venezuela ample opportunity to make its case that the 1899 Award is null and void but Venezuela has never attempted to do so and is now attempting to walk away from yet another agreement.
Venezuela does not want and will never agree to resolve “the controversy” by litigation because the facts and the law favour Guyana. Guyana, on the other hand, will never agree to a do over arbitration until the question regarding the validity of 1899 Award is resolved. And then there is the hard truth. Neither Guyana nor Venezuela will accept an adverse ruling from litigation or arbitration. Guyana will never give up Essequibo and Venezuela will never return the lands it acquired in 1899 which ironically, would be an unintended consequence of its argument for nullity. That brings us to diplomacy, but how does that work when Guyana has no room for negotiation or compromise? Venezuela does and for that reason, it is the preferred option for Maduro because it also keeps the issue alive.
Maduro’s actions are not divorced from his political challenges in Venezuela. He is very unpopular and facing strong headwinds in his bid for re-election. The country is in socio-economic decline. The cost of living is surging, and the education and health care systems are failing. Since 2015 more than 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country resulting in the highest migrant displacement record in the world. Maduro is currently in negotiations with the US and the EU to lift sanctions and those negotiations extracted a commitment to hold free and fair elections in 2024 with international observers present. That remains to be seen but with an approval rating in the low 20s, his chances of winning a free and fair election against a united opposition are slim.
Analysts believe that Maduro resurrected the border issue to distract from the real issues and boost his chances of re-election. The referendum was a charade as the results were predictable. Venezuelans have been educated and indoctrinated for decades that Essequibo belongs to them. But for Maduro, it was an opportunity to test run the issue, rekindle nationalism and cast himself as a strong resolute democratic nationalist. The tepid response from world leaders suggests that they regarded his threat to annex Esse-quibo as bluster given the state of negotiations with the US. His rapid turnaround and speedy acceptance of the invitation to the meeting in St Vincent also point in that direction.
Argyle allows him to make his argument for re-election without taking reckless risks that could have backfired. His ongoing interactions with President Ali and regional leaders give him the opportunity to refurbish his image as a statesman. He can tell voters that their vote on the referendum forced Guyana to come to the negotiation table; that his threats are on hold and could be revived if he is re- elected. He will tell them that oil that will flow from the acquisition of Essequibo will cure all things wrong in Venezuela. And of course, he will tell them that US support for Guyana poses a threat to Venezuela. He will also use the issue to draw contrast with his opponent who criticized the referendum and called on him to participate in proceedings at the ICJ. He has already threatened to prosecute opposition politicians who opposed the referendum for treason.
If re-elected, Maduro will be emboldened, and will exploit the controversy as long as he remains in office and therein lies the problem. Venezuelans have been indoctrinated into believing that Essequi-bo belongs to them. No Venezuelan President will have the courage to concede and walk away empty handed from something that is ingrained in the minds of Venezuelans. And how good is any “settlement” with Venezuela when a President in another century can renege on legally binding agreements made by earlier Presidents and enacted into Venezuelan law? Mallet-Prevost, a flunky in the 1899 Venezuelan delegation spoke from the grave in 1945. His ghost will continue to haunt this nation.
Sincerely,
Milton Jagannath
