A world population report released this past Tuesday by the United Nations, predicts that the world’s population will reach 10 billion around 2081; that’s in another 70 years. Of course there are billions of people who are now over 30 years old, who will not live to experience a 10 billion people world. However, the billions of under 25s who will make up a significant portion of an aged population in the 2080s give a clue as to the projected demographics.
Twelve years ago, the world’s population hit six billion, complemented by China’s contribution of 1.2 billion and India’s then one billion. The African continent only hit the one billion mark in 2009. Back then the UN had predicted that global population would reach 9 billion by 2050. It had also pointed to a spiraling growth in the world’s aged, forecasting that by 2018, old people—those 65 and over—would outnumber children hinting that longevity rather than procreation was tipping the global population scales.
However, with the population galloping towards the 7 billion mark, which it is sure to attain this year, the UN’s new estimate might even be a tad conservative.
The UN noted that “fertility is not declining as rapidly as expected in some poor countries, and has shown a slight increase in many wealthier countries, including the United States, Britain and Denmark”. If these trends continue, then as Director of the UN’s Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs Hania Zlotnik said in the report, both poor countries and the wealthy ones that help finance their development might need to examine whether there should be renewed emphasis on programmes that encourage family planning.
The current population growth already indicates that the funded programmes which aim at securing more live births, reducing infant mortality and advancing medical science to encourage longevity are working. The question that must now be asked, however, is whether the world, as it is right now, can sustain 10 billion plus people. The short answer would be no.
In January this year, the price of wheat—a major staple food around the world—was at an all time high. Food riots and protests had begun in some countries. Our own experience here in Guyana was that unfavourable weather had seen a drop in production of some agricultural produce. However, worldwide, shortages are being seen as a result of not just the weather, but population growth, which has seen farmland being diverted for housing development; and the burgeoning increase in the conversion of food grain to bio-fuel. There has also been a concomitant depletion in water supply, partly because of climate change issues, but also as a result of water being diverted from irrigation for potable use in cities.
Other studies suggest that the world also now has a rapidly growing middle class, and is likely to see shortages of not just grain but milk, meat and meat products as people increasingly will find them affordable. What is beginning to unfold will place an enormous burden on the world’s already taxed resources.
There is need for global recognition that the current state of affairs is not temporary and plans for mitigation must be addressed sooner rather than later. Regardless of what other advances and discoveries are made, a populous world where food and water—the bare necessities—are not at optimum levels would be an extremely bleak one indeed.
