The scandal-driven dismissal of South Korean president Park Geun-hye could not have come at a worse time. Not only has the Democratic Republic of North Korea (DPRK) recently flaunted its long range missiles, but its assassination of the supreme leader’s exiled half-brother – which South Korea correctly described as an act of terrorism – shows that Kim Jong-un is in no mood for diplomatic compromises. Before he was attacked in Kuala Lumpur International Airport by DPRK agents who used VX-nerve gas to fatally poison him, Kim Jong-nam lived under Chinese protection in Beijing and Macau for more than a decade. His murder places considerable strain on China’s already troublesome relationship with Pyongyang.
In classic authoritarian style, Kim’s regime tends to fasten on any hint of confrontation or subversion with paranoid fascination. Four years ago, Jang Song-taek the president’s uncle, and the only plausible threat to his rule, was dramatically purged. Unlike other members of the ruling family, Jang had travelled outside of the DPRK and had been well received in South Korea. He was also helping to promote economic reforms that China supported. Fearful of being undermined, Kim moved against Jang in late 2013. During a televised meeting of the politburo there was a scene eerily reminiscent of Stalin’s trials or Saddam Hussein’s chilling purge of the Iraqi Ba’ath party. Jang was sacked from his posts and then dragged out of his chair to answer for his crimes. The Korea Central News Agency said he had been plotting to “overthrow the state by all sorts of intrigues and despicable methods with a wild ambition to grab the supreme power.” The evidence against him included “half-heartedly clapping” when President Kim received a military promotion. The statement called Jang “despicable human scum … worse than a dog.”
It is too early to say what the immediate consequences of Park Geun-Hye’s removal from office will be, but the Damocles sword that awaits her successor is clear enough. Following the launch of North Korea’s four ballistic missiles, the US army has started to deploy an advanced anti-missile system in South Korea. Washington has also repeatedly called on China to defuse the rising tensions in the region. But Beijing’s’ influence over Pyongyang is at an historic low. Kim Jong-il travelled to China many times during his long reign and maintained close friendships with its leaders. His son, however, has not even met President Xi Jinping since taking power and the relationship between the two is said to be frosty, at best. A young and exceptionally insecure nationalist leader, Kim Jong-Un remains reluctant to acknowledge China’s economic stranglehold over the DPRK, and his increasingly erratic behaviour has produced a diplomatic stalemate that may ultimately prove disastrous.
Four years ago the US launched cyber attacks on the DPRK, to retard its missile programme. The recent launch shows that this strategy has run its course. During his five-year reign, Kim has presided over more nuclear tests than his father did in 17 years. As these have escalated during the last two years, he has not shied away from stating that his ultimate hope is to attain the capability of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile that can strike the mainland United States. China has taken unusually strong steps to discourage Kim’s nuclear ambitions but it may well have hit the limit of its influence. If it pushes too hard it could create a political crisis that could lead to the downfall of the Kim dynasty and the unification of Korea. This would exacerbate China’s encirclement sense of being encircled by US allies and weaponry. If, on the other hand Beijing overplays its economic sanctions it could soon face a massive refugee crisis. China has already suspended coal importation from North Korea, effectively wiping out 40 per cent of the DPRK’s exports overnight. Further pressure risks undermining the already precarious situation completely.
During their first meeting, President Trump was reportedly shaken by President Obama’s briefing on the situation in North Korea. Subsequent remarks clearly show that Trump believes China could singlehandedly defuse the present crisis if it wanted to. With the added uncertainty of Park Geun-Hye’s removal from office, the North Korean crisis has now reached a potential tipping point and it will require considerable sophistication and deftness from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, as well as unprecedented levels of restraint from President Trump, if further escalation is to be avoided.
The scandal-driven dismissal of South Korean president Park Geun-hye could not have come at a worse time. Not only has the Democratic Republic of North Korea (DPRK) recently flaunted its long range missiles, but its assassination of the supreme leader’s exiled half-brother – which South Korea correctly described as an act of terrorism – shows that Kim Jong-un is in no mood for diplomatic compromises. Before he was attacked in Kuala Lumpur International Airport by DPRK agents who used VX-nerve gas to fatally poison him, Kim Jong-nam lived under Chinese protection in Beijing and Macau for more than a decade. His murder places considerable strain on China’s already troublesome relationship with Pyongyang.
In classic authoritarian style, Kim’s regime tends to fasten on any hint of confrontation or subversion with paranoid fascination. Four years ago, Jang Song-taek the president’s uncle, and the only plausible threat to his rule, was dramatically purged. Unlike other members of the ruling family, Jang had travelled outside of the DPRK and had been well received in South Korea. He was also helping to promote economic reforms that China supported. Fearful of being undermined, Kim moved against Jang in late 2013. During a televised meeting of the politburo there was a scene eerily reminiscent of Stalin’s trials or Saddam Hussein’s chilling purge of the Iraqi Ba’ath party. Jang was sacked from his posts and then dragged out of his chair to answer for his crimes. The Korea Central News Agency said he had been plotting to “overthrow the state by all sorts of intrigues and despicable methods with a wild ambition to grab the supreme power.” The evidence against him included “half-heartedly clapping” when President Kim received a military promotion. The statement called Jang “despicable human scum … worse than a dog.”
It is too early to say what the immediate consequences of Park Geun-Hye’s removal from office will be, but the Damocles sword that awaits her successor is clear enough. Following the launch of North Korea’s four ballistic missiles, the US army has started to deploy an advanced anti-missile system in South Korea. Washington has also repeatedly called on China to defuse the rising tensions in the region. But Beijing’s’ influence over Pyongyang is at an historic low. Kim Jong-il travelled to China many times during his long reign and maintained close friendships with its leaders. His son, however, has not even met President Xi Jinping since taking power and the relationship between the two is said to be frosty, at best. A young and exceptionally insecure nationalist leader, Kim Jong-Un remains reluctant to acknowledge China’s economic stranglehold over the DPRK, and his increasingly erratic behaviour has produced a diplomatic stalemate that may ultimately prove disastrous.
Four years ago the US launched cyber attacks on the DPRK, to retard its missile programme. The recent launch shows that this strategy has run its course. During his five-year reign, Kim has presided over more nuclear tests than his father did in 17 years. As these have escalated during the last two years, he has not shied away from stating that his ultimate hope is to attain the capability of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile that can strike the mainland United States. China has taken unusually strong steps to discourage Kim’s nuclear ambitions but it may well have hit the limit of its influence. If it pushes too hard it could create a political crisis that could lead to the downfall of the Kim dynasty and the unification of Korea. This would exacerbate China’s encirclement sense of being encircled by US allies and weaponry. If, on the other hand Beijing overplays its economic sanctions it could soon face a massive refugee crisis. China has already suspended coal importation from North Korea, effectively wiping out 40 per cent of the DPRK’s exports overnight. Further pressure risks undermining the already precarious situation completely.
During their first meeting, President Trump was reportedly shaken by President Obama’s briefing on the situation in North Korea. Subsequent remarks clearly show that Trump believes China could singlehandedly defuse the present crisis if it wanted to. With the added uncertainty of Park Geun-Hye’s removal from office, the North Korean crisis has now reached a potential tipping point and it will require considerable sophistication and deftness from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, as well as unprecedented levels of restraint from President Trump, if further escalation is to be avoided.
