Growth
Real GDP is expected to grow by 20.9% while the non-oil GDP is projected to grow by 6.1%. The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector are projected to expand by 5.6% with forestry (18.5%), sugar (9.6%) and fishing (11.5%) expected to be star performers.
The extractive sector mining and quarrying industries is forecasted to grow 39.1% in 2021. Star performers are expected to be oil and gas (46.7%); bauxite (18.4); Other mining and quarrying (19.8%). Manufacturing sector is projected at 7.3%, Construction 9.1 % and Services 5% are the other sectors for which growth is projected.
Inflation is projected at 1.6 percent.
Balance of Payments
● Overall balance of payments is expected to register a lower surplus in 2021 of US$59.9 million compared with $US60.6 million in 2020;
● The current account is expected to move from a deficit of US$651.7 million to a surplus of US$65.7 million;
● Export receipts are projected to increase by 46.4 percent to US$3,788.8 million;
● Crude oil exports are projected to increase by US$1,038.6 million;
● The capital account is expected to move from a surplus of US$720.9 million to a deficit of US$5.8 million.
Ram & McRae’s comments
● These targets are extremely ambitious and may suffer from a number of capacity constraints. The relationship between the administration and some of our major contractors is strained and, in any case, it is doubtful that they have the manpower to carry out all the projects identified for 2021.
● Although the Minister identified keeping citizens safe from COVID-19, there does not appear to be sufficient resources or indeed a robust plan to prevent or deal with the disease including masking, social distancing, contact tracing, cur fews and vaccinations. One year after the disease first hit Guyana, vaccines are only now available and in any case at a very limited scale while only being made available to frontline workers.
● Overcoming or mitigating the effects of the pandemic is critical to the achievement of the ambitious economic and social plans. With Guyana’s population, it is in the interest of the people’s health and the early recovery that we should achieve herd immunity in the shortest possible time.
