The United Nations was born in 1945 at the advent of the first Cold War, which lasted from 1945 to 1989. During the first Cold War countries of what came to be known as NATO, and countries of what came to be known as the Warsaw Pact faced off all across the world, and at the United Nations.
The leadership of the United Nations, notably Representatives on the UN Security Council, and the UN Secretary-General, learned a crucial lesson, namely that progress could only be achieved incrementally, in selected areas at the United Nations, when a consensus could be negotiated through the exercise of careful judgement and discreet diplomacy.
During the era of the first Cold War, careful and discreet diplomacy led to consensus on agendas for development, decolonization, peacekeeping, preventive diplomacy, and emergency humanitarian assistance. Progress on human rights issues was halting.
Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold helped develop the UN roles in peacekeeping and preventive diplomacy, while Secretary-General U Thant helped establish what was then known as the Office of the UN Disaster Relief Coordinator, now incorporated in the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
The first Secretary-General of the UN, Trygve Lie, a trade unionist, thought he could be a public advocate for the UN and was forced to resign eventually because the then USSR withdrew its cooperation from him. By the time he died in an aircraft mishap in Africa, Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold, because of his activism in the then Congo, also faced calls from the USSR to resign.
Secretaries-General U Thant, Kurt Waldheim, and Javier Perez de Cuellar understood the pulse of the times and operated discreetly, thus enabling the United Nations to contribute, to the extent that the great powers allowed it to do so, in the areas of development, decolonization, peacekeeping, preventive diplomacy, humanitarian assistance, and some human rights work.
As the first Cold War ended, the Security Council met in January 1992 at the level of Heads of State – and at the outset of the post-cold war world. It requested the then Secretary-General, Boutros-Boutros-Ghali, the first Secretary-General of the post-cold war period, to present to it an Agenda for Peace for its consideration. This author, as Chief Speech-Writer to the Secretary-General, wrote the first draft of this agenda for peace. Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali published his Agenda for Peace in August of 1992, with major chapters on preventive diplomacy, peacemaking, peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and peace enforcement.
It was an ambitious document, but Boutros-Ghali stepped back from it a year or so later in a Supplement to the Agenda for Peace. Essentially, he said that what he had initially presented, including the idea of peace-enforcement (which was not in this author’s draft) could not be implemented. Boutros-Ghali was erratic in publishing the Supplement, as he was in publishing Agendas for Development and for Democratization just before he left office.
Boutros-Ghali had set the bar for the UN too high and he would continue to do so during the rest of his term. As Secretary-General, he sought to act imperially and he got into fights with the USA, which pushed him out of office. Boutros-Ghali’s tenure proved that even in the post-cold war period, discreet diplomacy was needed on the part of the UN Secretary-General.
The next Secretary-General of the post-cold war period, Kofi Annan, who had a long career as an administrator in the UN before he became Secretary-General, judiciously sought to advance a UN agenda during his first term, and may be credited with having helped craft the UN Millennium Declaration and the Millennium Development Goals.
During his first term, he cooperated with the great powers but then believed his own legend and came to loggerheads with the USA during his second term. He faced calls for his resignation. He ended his term as a wounded helmsperson at the United Nations.
His successor, the third Secretary-General of the post-cold war period, Ban ki-Moon, chose a discreet path, while successfully and courteously seeking to sensitise the world to the dangers of climate change. Some accused him of being faceless, but he left the UN without any notable disagreements over the Secretary-General-ship, and history will give him credit for that.
Ban ki-Moon’s successor, the current Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, may be considered the first Secretary-General of the post-post-cold war period; or the first Secretary-General during the Second Cold war. He has carried on Ban’s highlighting of the problem of climate change, but has performed very much in the role of a public advocate, similar to what Trygve Lie had sought to do at the start of the UN. As a former Prime Minister, public advocacy comes naturally to him.
Guterres has launched at least a dozen ‘plans of action’ or similar documents none of which has advanced much in implementation and, as of the time of writing, work is underway to draft a ‘Pact for the Future’ which, it is hoped, will be adopted at a Summit of the Future in September of 2024. Whether it will have a better fate in implementation is a matter for conjecture.
This is taking place at a time when there is evidence all around that a Second Cold War has descended on the United Nations. China and the United States, the leading global powers have locked horns politically, economically, militarily, and ideologically. Ideologically, China and Russia are bedfellows who both challenge the ‘rules-based order’, which they contend is a Western imposition.
China formally declares its support for the United Nations and the UN Charter, but challenges the ‘rules-based order’, by which it means unspecified norms of international law that it contends were introduced by Western powers without its knowledge or consent. China also challenges the notion of universal human rights which, it similarly asserts, is a Western invention incompatible with the history and ethos of a country like China – which it dubs a civilizational country.
Russia also claims to be a civilizational country. It has militarily taken over large parts of Ukrainian territory and has built up material support from China, Iran, and North Korea, among others – including India, which buys large amounts of its oil and gas. Wars are raging in Gaza and Sudan, and the Security Council is paralysed for the most part. Russia, a veto-wielding power on the Security Council, protects itself from criticism, while the USA, uses its veto to shield Israel from criticism for its prolonged military operation in Gaza.
As a Second Cold War has descended upon the UN, the UN Secretary-General, as well as powers belonging to the G20 or BRICS groupings, are pressing for reforms at the United Nations – while fully aware that structural reforms such as enlargement of the Security Council would require not only the requisite voting approbation, but also the support or acquiescence of each of the five Permanent Members of the Security Council.
In the meantime, the UN is in a quandary that, in order for it to discharge its function in respect of the maintenance of international peace and security, it needs the cooperation of the Permanent Members, including Russia. And in order for it to enhance international cooperation, it will need the goodwill of the two pre-eminent powers, China and the USA. Without this, the UN will be hobbled, as it was during the first Cold War.
It also needs to be remembered that it is this present Security Council that will elect the next UN Secretary-General and one can take it for granted that the Security Council will opt for a Secretary-General versed in the skills of discreet diplomacy rather than one seeking to be a public advocate. The public advocacy of Secretaries-General Trygve Lie and now Antonio Guterres will be found wanting.
What will be needed in the coming period, during the Second Cold War, is a Secretary-General who operates discreetly, behind the scenes, consulting with the various groups and the major powers, exploring for areas of common ground, and helping to craft agreements or solutions, to the extent possible.
The advent of the Second Cold War will require the return of the Discreet UN Diplomacy practised during the First Cold War. At the end of the day, what counts is results, not shouting in a void. Diplomacy is the Art of the Possible. And Discreet Diplomacy is what the UN now will need again.
