Dear Editor,
May was not one of the better months for the year in terms of the percentage of positive C-19 cases to the number of tests in Guyana, which stood at 12%. June was better at 9% but not better that the average for Jan-Apr 2021 which was 8% (even with Jan at 11%).
When I last wrote a letter on this subject in May, we stood at 379/million; at the time thankfully below the world fatality average of 412/million. Suriname was doing a little better, just three places below us on the global chart at 350/mil. Since then, both Guyana and Suriname have deteriorated relative to the world averages. At the time of writing (July 6, 2021), with 605 deaths per million population, we have shot up to the sixth placed country above the world average of 513 deaths/mil (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus). Unfortunately, Suriname shot past us to 27th above the world average for deaths with 926 deaths/mil. Trinidad and Tobago also worsened, from well below the world average in May, now 11th above with 640 deaths/mil.
Jamaica is doing much better at 16th below the World fatality average and Barbados is doing very well at 39th below.
While the data on our test/cases ratio may contain too many confounding variables to form a reasonable hypothesis as to the reasons why, the data on deaths versus the world average indicates that the rest of the world is doing a little better than us when it comes to fatalities.
But the drivers of our fatality rate would also have a lot of confounding variables. ‘Confounding Variables’ is statistical language to say that there could be many outside factors that make finding a clear hypothesis as to the cause of the observed data difficult. For example, we may only mainly be testing persons who have had an exposure, or those who wish to travel. Or as regards deaths, we may have more aged or vulnerable people; or we may have a deadlier strain, tighter curfews etc.
A look at the following table of data extracted from Worldometers shows how we compared over the past 7 days (to July 5) with a few countries.
It looks like the UK and USA that have had way higher death rates than us to date (1879 and 1866 per mi. respv.), have been doing very well lately. For example, the UK with over 86 times our population, only had 6 times our daily deaths over the past week. What were they doing to have such good results?
A look at the following chart from Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations – Statistics and Research – Our World in Data may enlighten us.
Their vaccination rates are much higher than ours. The UK started earlier than the USA and are doing much better with deaths now. Think of the area under each country’s curve, and you will get an idea of the relative robustness of their vaccination programmes (especially Barbados which had zero deaths over the 7 day average period).
Vaccinations seem to be a strong indicator of a much lower death rate. With lives at stake, we know what we all must do.
Sincerely and appreciatively,
Keith Evelyn
