Dear Editor,
My assertions that there will be some degree of rapprochement between the United States and Venezuela is confirmed. Draconian sanctions on our neighbour are due for easing. There will be the usual bull about the suffering Venezuelan people, and for democracy and the will of the people to prevail. Nevertheless, I focus on how this icebreaker of sanctions easing impact the dynamics of oil here, and Guyana place in the big picture. Easing of sanctions is a positive development, if only to reduce the human suffering, lawlessness, and restoration of some level of social order. Because sanctions bit so deeply and so enduringly into the heart of Venezuelan society, Senor Maduro had to cry ‘Uncle’ and U.S. regime changers realized that a stalemate existed. Their guy Guaido didn’t have the muscular support, and what it takes, to oust incumbent Maduro; he proved to be good sparring partner, but not much of a championship contender. So, it was Senor Maduro, and no one else (for the time being).
But this early easing prior to a scheduled mid-August gathering in Mexico involving Venezuelan political contestants grappling for power, as brokered by the American and Europeans, is simply a good faith American gesture to pave the way for bigger things anticipated. Editor, there has to be quid pro quos embedded in what is to come. I envision that what is unsaid is that doors will be reopened in Venezuela for American business powers to make a gradual return. There are the oil fields to be explored, the oil infrastructure to be refurbished, and other business interests, mainly American, to get their feet in the door. Venezuela is big game territory, where big elephants can be hunted. Exxon, Chevron, and Citibank, among others, are primed for action, with the way cleared for the likes of them. The Venezuelans need work, investment, and safety and stability to return to a civilized existence; hence, it is a mutually rewarding development. I think there will be further meeting of minds in Mexico, with America emerging from the talks, and making pretty speeches about progress among the adversaries (Venezuelan and foreign) and prospects for a return to normalcy.
As official camouflages go, those are smooth with the right notes and sound bites delivered. In terms of Guyana, never forget that this is incomparably cheap oil, but our fields are still dwarfed by those in Venezuela, along with all the downstream and other rich commercial opportunities. My thinking is that Guyana could find itself relegated, in time, to second chair. That is, the default option for Exxon and America. The latter doesn’t have any headaches, since Guyana is a puppet state, and leaders do as told; while leaders and citizens here will get openings to resume their regular stupidities and make fools of themselves. The biggest winner in Venezuela would be Corporate America (Exxon). The company will relish the chance to spread the attention on it from here to there, where still bigger prizes wait.
Sincerely,
GHK Lall
