What we are already beginning to discover is that for all the global concerns arising out of what we are told is the nexus between fossil fuels and the worrisome threat of cataclysmic climate change, Guyana’s remarkably rapid transformation from a ‘banana republic’ to one of the most-watched countries in the hemispheric is entirely a function of our new-found oil and gas resources.
These resources are seen not only for the contribution that they can make to Guyana’s development, going forward, but also for the cumulative regional, hemispheric and international attention that the country has attracted. That apart, recent events would appear to point to the likelihood of a re-energizing of the Caribbean Community, arising out of the notion that oil for Guyana means attendant enhanced fortunes for the rest of the Caribbean as well.
The constant to-ing and froing of potential investors between wherever they come from and these shores is itself an advertisement for just how Guyana is seen these days with regard to what we have to offer to external fortune-seekers. Almost overnight, a country that had been widely perceived by the rest of the region and the world as no more than a cauldron of ethnic strife and socio-economic underdevelopment, is now being regarded as a likely springboard for the takeoff of the entire region.
Here, the examples of what would appear to be the re-set relationships between Guyana and some sister CARICOM countries is most pronounced in Barbados, Antigua and Trinidad and Tobago where the recent visits to these shores by the respective Heads-of-Government for the May agriculture forum will be remembered as a radical departure from the earlier perception of Guyana as being a ‘no-fly zone’ for other CARICOM Heads.
There have been other kinds of gains for Guyana too including those that derive from the near simultaneous oil discoveries by Guyana and Suriname, a circumstance that has seemingly helped to improve relations between the countries to the extent where (who knows?) this might even be a precursor for the arrival at a modus vivendi on how the Corentyne River issue can best be settled. Suriname apart, the visit earlier this year to Guyana by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonario, an eventuality that few people might have bet on, in different circumstances, was clearly a landmark foreign policy development for Guyana.
The problem of Venezuela’s territorial claim apart – and that will almost certainly remain an issue for some time to come – oil has placed Guyana amongst the pantheon of what is now a globally recognized South American energy corridor, never mind the fact that like other oil-producing countries, Guyana will doubtless, sooner or later, begin to feel the ‘rough edge’ of the climate change lobby and the attendant push for sharp reductions in fossil fuel recovery.
If it was unthinkable that, early in the piece, a new-found oil producer, a poor country, to wit, would have been enthusiastic about the climate change lobby then, sooner or later, Guyana will have to come to terms with the weight of the global lobby and, as a consequence, bend in the wind of change. This reality raises an interesting question. Should we take what we can and run? If you ask the Guyanese people and certainly the political administration, they will almost certainly opt for a make-hay-while-the-sun-shines position that advocates taking advantage of fossil fuel for as long as the country can whilst seeking to maximize the longer-term development opportunities that survive way beyond cuts in fossil fuel recovery. Whatever the pundits might say this is likely to be one of the more critical issues facing the country, down the road, though just how far down the road is difficult to say at this time. It leaves one to wonder whether this may well not be the single most important issue that will face Guyana, perhaps sooner rather than later.
Whilst, as of now, sections of the political leadership are showing indications of a pushback against the reality of a likely much stronger climate change lobby, going forward, the reality is that Guyana is in no position to push back against the power of a global lobby. Our capability to recover and market oil on our own is likely to remain just where it is now for quite some time.
Where our oil and gas resources are concerned are we therefore not in a kind of make hay while the sun shines situation and ought this concern – for the sake of the development of the country, as a whole – not become the number one priority on our political/economic agenda?
Wishful thinking? Perhaps so. The question that arises is, quite simply, if not an altered political outlook, then what?
That is perhaps the most important national question that the people of Guyana will have to offer, going forward. Here, it is a matter of determining whether or not the pursuit of a responsible answer to that question is not likely to create even more socio-political challenges than we face at this time.
