Autocrats in power for any extended period with oppression as part of their CV will rarely leave office willingly. It is hard to see President Nicolás Maduro, therefore, allowing himself to be voted out of Miraflores in a free and fair election this year; he would see the consequences for himself as potentially perilous. “We have the world record for elections in the world: 30 elections and 28 victories,” he was quoted as saying a few days ago. That is a record which speaks for itself, although not perhaps quite in the way which he intended. He followed this by predicting another “victory of the people,” in the 2024 national poll.
An authoritarian ruler never stands on his own. He is surrounded by an immediate coterie of trusted officials, as well as by a larger and more amorphous number of people all of whose interests are dependent on their leader’s continuation in office. No matter how many loyalists surround him, however, in the face of widespread unpopularity an autocrat can only continue in government if the security forces will deal with opponents and quell dissent. In the case of the Venezuelan protests of 2017, for example, which had been triggered first by a humanitarian crisis followed by a constitutional one, they did as President Maduro required.
The ultimate shield in the Venezuelan state is the army, which the regime did not even have to bring out of its barracks in 2017-19; the police and other security services were sufficient to contain the unrest. The fact that the military did not come out in defence of the people either, meant that the protests were doomed to failure. As opposed to years ago, the Bolivarian armed forces have become corrupt, and have been bought off by allocating them businesses to run. As a consequence they too have acquired a vested interest in the current state arrangements, added to which they are very closely monitored for potential coup plotters.
The US started imposing sanctions on Venezuelan industries in 2017, including oil and gold, and following the 2019 election which was not deemed to have met democratic standards, recognised Juan Guaidó, as opposed to Nicolás Maduro, as interim President. Mr Guaidó eventually faded into obscurity as Mr Maduro tightened his grip on the institutions of state, but the sanctions took a toll on the Venezuelan economy causing millions of citizens to migrate. At first they flooded Latin countries, in particular Colombia, but in more recent times they have turned their eyes north.
The US has a migrant crisis on its southern border, and whereas previously the majority of migrants derived from Mexico and later Central America, last September it was reported that around a quarter of illegal immigrants were of Venezuelan nationality. America is in an election year and immigration is a key election issue. It is clear that President Trump’s Venezuelan strategy has been ineffective in removing the regime, and with the Ukraine war adding to global oil pressures, the Biden administration decided to engage in secret negotiations with Caracas with the aim of lifting the ban on the oil and gas sector. This sector accounts for 94% of foreign currency entering Venezuela, and it was hoped that a measure of economic recovery would reduce the emigration rate.
What Washington wanted in return was democratic concessions, and so in October last year Maduro’s government signed the Barbados Agreement with the combined opposition called the Unitary Platform. The US then followed through by lifting the oil and gas ban for six months as well as the ban on gold. The parties agreed to ensure a free and fair election, the release of political prisoners as well as American ones, in addition to which all presidential candidates and political parties were authorized “provided that they meet the requirements established to participate in a presidential election, in accordance with the procedures established by Venezuelan law.”
Having committed himself, President Maduro recognised there was no way he could win a free and fair election, especially after his main rival, María Corina Machado, overwhelmingly won an opposition primary which officialdom had not sanctioned. It could not have been lost on him that she won decisively even in Chavista areas. It is at this point that he attempted to claw back the political initiative by playing the nationalist card in relation to Essequibo, but that failed, although he managed to save face with the Argyle declaration. However he arrested some senior members of Ms Machado’s party.
She herself had earlier been banned from public office for fifteen years along with some other political personalities like Henrique Capriles, but she appealed the ban to the Supreme Court. That court recently upheld the prohibition. “Without me, there are no elections,” Ms Machado was reported to have said following the ruling, but her supporters are not united on what she should do next, some maintaining she should put her weight behind a substitute candidate. It should be said that not all government critics are sure the Barbados Agreement has been violated in this instance, given its wording quoted above.
The US for its part, however, decided that Venezuela was in breach of the Agreement and consequently it reinstated the sanction on gold. President Maduro is well aware of Washington’s Achilles heel, and so promptly announced that he would not accept any repatriated migrants deported from America’s southern border.
Washington now wants to rescue the Agreement and avoid using the oil sanction, and so has sent officials to Colombia to secure President Gustavo Petro’s mediation and negotiate with the Venezuelans there. Whatever comes out of these talks, it has to be said that the Americans are unredeemed optimists if they think that the Miraflores clique will allow themselves to be quietly voted out of office in a free and fair election. They may agree to that, but it is unlikely they would implement it. It is conceivable they could suggest a transitional option which would leave them in place at some level, but whether the US let alone the Venezuelan opposition would entertain such a proposition is altogether another matter.
In the meantime the President of the National Assembly has called on parties (the major opposition did not attend) to decide on a date for elections. The dates they have been discussing mostly fall in the first half of the year, when the Agreement says the election should be held in the second half. Whether one possible scheme is to hold an early election and catch everyone off guard, can only be guessed at.
In addition, arrests have been made this year in relation to what have been described as military conspiracies against the government, another possible political ploy to be played, even if any of them are genuine.
President Maduro may not have even decided yet which cards he will lay down in order to continue in power. He recognises that with the global oil situation and the US migrant problem, he is in a relatively stronger negotiating position than he was before. While he would prefer to have the sanctions stay lifted, he would probably accept their reimposition as the necessary price of a fraudulent election, although as said, the best plays to achieve that end might not yet have been finalised.
One of his cards in the mix is the Essequibo one, and that is kept alive by the distribution of fake maps to all educational institutions; last week’s announcement of the completion of a heliport intended to offer greater facilities for the development of ‘Guyana Esequiba’; reports of other developments in and around Tumeremo in relation to our territory: and constant repetition of the statement, “We will peacefully recover rights over the Essequibo,” most recently also last week.
President Maduro has repeated more than once that war is not an alternative to achieve Venezuelan ends for the ‘recovery’ of our county, although anything he says has to be treated with a generous dose of salt. After all, he is not a man of whom it can be said his word is his bond.
Exactly how everything will play out in Venezuela is difficult to predict, but since our territory is an element in their political game we cannot afford to slumber, but must remain alert and prepared.
