In early January, European Central Bank Chief, Christine Lagarde spoke out loud what many world leaders are saying privately: that the re-election of Donald Trump as US President would present a major threat to geo-political and economic stability.
“If we draw lessons from history, by which I mean to say the manner in which he carried out the first four years of his mandate, it is clearly a threat…You just have to look at the trade tariffs, you just have to look at his commitment regarding NATO, you just have to look at his attitude regarding the battle against climate change.”
They say a week is a long time in politics and way back then, Trump was mired in numerous court cases related to his dubious business affairs, a civil lawsuit to do with a rape charge, and a case brought by the State of Georgia that he personally pressured officials to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden. There was also the Colorado court decision barring him from its Republican primary, arguing he incited the 2021 Capitol riot.
However in recent days he has had two significant victories. First the Supreme Court to which he appointed three justices, ruled that Colorado could not bar him from contesting. Most recently on Super Tuesday he swept aside his only rival to the Republican candidacy, Nikki Haley, ensuring he will go head to head against Joe Biden in November. His popularity is quite mystifying to non-Americans but he has certainly tapped into and cultivated a politics of prejudice that seems centred around anxiety that the country has lost its “traditional values” and a fear of illegal immigration.
At the same time questions are increasingly being asked about President Biden’s health after several videos showed him appearing forgetful and disoriented. A report into his possession of classified documents described the 81-year-old’s memory as having “significant limitations.” It noted that Biden could not recall defining milestones in his own life such as when his son Beau died or when he served as vice president, according to an AP report. He may have recovered some ground in Thursday’s State of the Union address.
It is worth noting that both Trump and Biden already held the record for the oldest combined age of two Presidential candidates back in 2020, and that Trump also has his moments of confusion although it might well be he simply does not know what he is talking about rather than being forgetful. For example he described the Hungarian premier Victor Orban as the leader of Turkey and that North Korea had a population of 1.4B.
For his part Biden’s re-election chances are in some trouble. His kid glove approach to Israel’s brutal invasion of Gaza and the deaths of 30,000 Palestinians is losing him support among many young voters who might have voted Democrat in November. More dangerously the large Arab population in Michigan has turned against him in what is a crucial swing state. Some 100,000 voters in the Democratic primary voted uncommitted on their ballot in apparent protest.
National polls show it will be a close race so perhaps there is now a 50/50 chance of Trump returning to the White House. One thing is certain were that to happen it would usher in another period of turmoil both domestically and internationally given his erratic and combative approach to governance. Part of the problem is that Mr Trump does not know how little he knows about world affairs – in fact about anything. Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was blunt when he described him as a “moron” in 2018 after Trump had visited the Pentagon and compared the Afghanistan war to running a restaurant.
Aides had complained that he never read any briefings, not even the snippet-sized ones they made for his short attention span. His meetings with world leaders were either full of braggadocio or plain amateurish. Who recalls his barging his way to the front of a group of European heads like some school bully? His disastrous 2018 meeting in Helsinki with Russian President Vladimir Putin after which he publicly doubted his own intelligence agencies; and let us not even mention those with Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader which were a diplomatic coup for the latter.
As for the rest of the world, it is this chopping and changing of US foreign policy that is of such concern. Post World War II, America was for good or bad the leader of the free world and of free trade. But Trump in his first term threatened to pull out of NATO and imposed tariffs on both Europe and China. He also seems to be equivocal towards helping defend Ukraine against Russia, a war which European countries consider existential.
Closer to home how a Trump return might play out regarding Guyana is worth exploring. For instance his approach to Venezuela included sanctions on the regime, the failed backing of Juan Guaido as de facto President and there was a farcical beach invasion by former US Army officers intent on kidnapping Maduro.
Could we see the same hardline policy or might he think he can meet mano a mano with Maduro and make some “beautiful” bargain? Despite being polar opposites politically the two are really birds of a feather and Trump is impartial to a strong leader.
It is not out of the question.
Firstly the impetus for sanctions on Venezuela was in part to do with domestic politics as Trump was keen to capture the support of the large and wealthy Venezuelan migrant population in the state of Florida. However it now seems that Florida is no longer in play for Democrats. Secondly many of the migrants crossing illegally into America are Venezuelans and Trump might feel that some rapprochement, the lifting of sanctions and exports of oil might help stem that flow. Such a deal may inject uncertainty into the State Department’s currently solid and explicit support for Guyana’s territorial integrity and embolden Maduro to pursue his spurious claims even further.
Meanwhile Trump and Republicans in general are pro-fossil fuel and would likely encourage the expansion of domestic production including overturning Biden’s freeze on gas export approvals.
Might we then see another race to the bottom when oil prices collapsed in late 2019 thanks to OPEC Plus’ discord and US over supply? For Guyana US$30- US$40 crude would usher in a period of austerity after four years of PPP/C massive spending. The party has made a booming economy its centre piece and any faltering of that would make them electorally vulnerable
In the wider Latin America, we would likely see Trump pressure Brazilian President Lula on behalf of his ally Jair Bolsonaro and agitate against weaker left wing governments such as those in Bolivia and Colombia.
November 5 will be not only a test of US democracy but its aftermath might end up testing all countries, big and small.
