Not too long ago, I wrote that President Obama’s biggest issue would be unemployment; that the swollen ranks of jobless could turn out to be his Achilles heel; and that this vulnerability would be lethal. On the surface – and from early reports – Massachusetts appears to have reinforced this belief. Now, I will venture to make a more far reaching prediction: it is that the Obama presidency will be bogged down in underachievement, and that it is even doomed.
On a personal level, this is a bitter pill, and very difficult to contemplate. Yet, an unflinching practicality must prevail. The fallout started with the loss of governorships in New Jersey and Virginia; losses that occurred and made more pointed, in spite of the personal involvement and prestige of the chief executive. Still, Massachusetts was a hard blow; by any account a staggering one. Already the word is that Senator-elect Brown’s victory came about, not in spite of Obama, but because of his presence. To be sure, there is chatter about Kennedy, the people’s wishes, federal deficits, and national bankruptcy fears. But it boils down to the superheated issues of jobs, jobs, jobs; or the absence of them.
I think that the groundswell of disenchantment is only going to grow, and that it will find intermediate expression at the upcoming November polls. Fifteen million jobless is a terrifying number; and when involuntary part-time workers are considered, the number is more ominous at close to eighteen million. Also, it should be noted that neither number accounts for new arrivals or illegal immigrants. Even if – and it is a most unlikely if – five million (33%) of the unemployed were to find work, there still remains a small country of ten million jobless, some with families, and all unhappy and looking to make somebody pay.
Still, finding jobs for five million has to be a gargantuan challenge, and even more so when a really close look at the jobless identifies minorities, education constraints, skills limitations, age – the very young and the so-called mature – outsourcing realities, and competitive forces. Realistically, I have to question how even half of five million can be hired by the end of 2011. Compounding the bleakness is corporate fear, austerity programmes, and declining demand. Altogether, a troubling vision for which, I believe, the President and his party will be punished.
Between now and the high probability of rejection in the November elections, it is likely that much of the President’s agenda will run into more buzz saws, be it healthcare reform (now almost meaningless); stimulus spending (under strident attack); and Wall Street regulation (gutted into ineffectiveness). He will find himself hamstrung every step of the way, and not only from Republicans. Increasingly, the Congressional Democrats have come to resemble the Congress Party of India, with its uneasy factions, dog packs, and caucuses. Instead of a united and unyielding front, there are several blocs with priorities of their own that clash with the President’s.
This convergence of factors: Republi-can Party gains and confidence; fragmentation in the ranks of Democrats; and the scorching issue of joblessness – leading to voter uprising – will hobble severely the President in the coming months, and, alas, I fear the rest of his single term tenure. Together, this will cripple the Obama presidency, and cut short very abruptly the promise of only a year ago.
I hope to be proven wrong, but the odds are most unfavourable. And my heart and head tell me otherwise.
Yours faithfully,
GHK Lall
