CAIRO (Reuters) – When posters vaunting President Hosni Mubarak’s son as Egypt’s future leader appeared in Cairo’s poorer districts, it was only days before many were torn down or defaced with spraypaint. Supporters of Gamal might take heed.
Approaching elections have stirred debate about whether 46-year-old Gamal will succeed and hinted at rifts in the establishment about whether he is up to the job. The poster campaign raised questions about whether he has the popularity or muscle to win over the military or secure other levers of power.
The question of who rules next has created uncertainty for investors but not enough, for now, to outweigh the attractions of a market growing at more than 5 percent a year when the picture in other global markets is less bullish, economists say.
“Gamal runs against the public mood,” said American University in Cairo political scientist Mustapha al-Sayyed.
“If the state of discontent continues … it would be very difficult for the security and armed forces to support him. They would like a candidate that could maintain law and order.”
It is not only in the military where he could run up against opposition should the president, 82, decide not to seek a sixth six-year term in a presidential vote next year.
The ruling party seems divided, with an old guard wary of a new generation of the economic liberalisers and business executives behind the former investment banker Gamal.
“There is a split in opinion in the political class in Cairo,” said a European diplomat.
Another Western diplomat said: “I don’t see any evidence talking to those around him (President Mubarak) that they are clear in their minds about who succeeds him.”
Virtual walls, a growing channel of opposition, are also plastered with appeals. Dozens of Facebook groups have emerged supporting Gamal, but an equal number of groups seek to block a family succession.
“Under their rule, Egypt’s resources have been sucked dry… We have had enough of your accomplishments,” said one Facebook group titled “Gamal: you and your father are unwanted.”
Threatening any family succession — which both Mubaraks deny is their plan — has been a campaign run by former UN nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who said he might run in 2011 if the constitution is changed to open the field.
ElBaradei is unlikely to secure the changes but has shown there may be an alternative for Egypt, where many poor blame Gamal’s allies for policies they say only helped the rich.
