Dear Editor,
The reaction to the results of LGE 2023 has been mixed as well as perplexing. The Opposition Parliamentary party, APNU, claims victory in the apparent belief that it warded off a spirited challenge by the governing PPP/C to shake up their strongholds in Georgetown, New Amsterdam, and Linden. Moreover, they indicate that their share in the national votes increased from 34% in 2018 to 37.3% in 2023. They also note that the PPP/C’s share of national votes has declined from 61% in 2018 to 58% in 2023. APNU celebrates their victory in the Linden LAA (Local Authority Area) and notes that they almost doubled their voter turn-out rate (VTR) from 19.9% in 2018 to 37% in 2023. And it is this increase in VTR that helped to restrict the PPP/C’s vote to 2,464, while they (APNU) increased their share of votes from 69.1% in 2018 to 75.3% in 2023. They also express satisfaction that they recaptured from the PPP/C their prized Buxton Foulis NDC.
For some people, the perception of what constitutes a win or a victory in a political election depends on how they view or revise their party’s objective(s). The 22+ small parties that contested LGE 2023 were more concerned about becoming players in governance at the NDC level and not to be power brokers. They won 24 seats in 10 constituencies in region 3 (West Demerara) which indicates that third parties, particularly at the local level, do have energy and traction and should not therefore be dismissed. Of note is that of the 14 LAAs in Region 3, APNU contested only in 2. The smaller parties filled that gap. At the national level, the smaller parties received 8,943 votes (or 4.8%), compared with 2,995 votes in 2018. Neither does APNU want to be players nor power brokers; instead, they want to win power at the local and national level. Limiting the inroads of PPP/C into their traditional strongholds of Linden, Georgetown, New Amsterdam, Kwakwani, and elsewhere, seems to have been their main objective. If this is the case, then in their conception, they could invoke any emotion, victory or otherwise.
The PPP/C states that the increase in votes that APNU received in Georgetown, Linden, and New Amsterdam is not significant and that it provides no reason for them to be jubilant. In Georgetown, APNU’s share of votes declined from 62.8% in 2018 to 60.7% in 2023, compared with the PPP/C’s share of votes that increased from 24.4% in 2018 to 36.0% in 2023. The decline of the APNU’s votes and the rise of the PPP/C’s votes have led to an increase of 4 seats in favour of the PPP/C in the 30-seat City Council (from 7 in 2018 to 11 in 2023). An analogous situation is applicable to New Amsterdam where APNU received 55.9% to the PPP/C’s 42.5% of the votes but it could not prevent the PPP/C from doubling its seats from 3 to 6 in the 14-seat City Council. With respect to Linden, while APNU increased its share of votes from 69.1% in 2018 to 75.3% in 2023, the PPP/C’s share jumped from 7.7% in 2018 to 23.2% in 2023. It is the rise in the proportion of votes that is significant. This rise has resulted in the PPP/C obtaining 2 seats in the 16-seat City Council.
The PPP/C having won 67 LAAs (83.8%), 906 seats (74.3%), and 58% of total votes cast, claims that it is a “massive victory, a landslide.” Not only that, the PPP/C also won the APNU’s traditional strongholds of Bartica and Mahdia municipalities which positions them to lead 7 municipalities out of 10 nationally. Finally, an important aspect of the LGE 2023 is Voter Turn- out Rate (VTR). There were 279 constituencies (No Contest) where voters were not required to vote. In computing VTR therefore the LAAs with “No Contests” were excluded from computation to avoid distortion. Attach is a table with VTR for selected LAAs. While the VTR for Georgetown in 2018 was 24%, the VTR for 2023 has not yet been computed, but the analysis of a sample Constituency # 5 (Sophia, Pattensen, Turkeyen) shows a VTR of 28%. By whatever metric one uses, the norm as well as the legal system in democratic societies would unequivocally determine that the PPP/C is the big winner of LGE 2023. Most Guyanese share this position. APNU should snap out of its denial!
Sincerely,
Dr. Tara Singh
